Scientists say that the circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is at its weakest in over a millennium. Underpinning the Gulf Stream, which is the weather system bringing warm and mild weather to Europe, is weakening most likely due to climate breakdown.
Weakening Atlantic Circulations
New data suggests that the further weakening of the Atlantic circulation, better known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), could cause more storms to batter the UK, with intense winters and increasing heatwaves and droughts across Europe.
Scientists are predicting that AMOC with further weaken if global heating trends continue and could be reduced by roughly 34-45% by the end of the century. This could be the tipping point where the Gulf Stream could become irrevocably unstable.
Additionally, weakened Gulf Streams would raise sea levels on the US Atlantic coast which could spell numerous disastrous consequences.
Stefan Rahmstorf, lead author of a study published in the journal Nature Geosciences entitled, "Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium," tells the Guardian that the weakening of the AMOC would increase the severity and number of storms hitting the UK, and would bring Europe more damaging heatwaves.
According to Rahmstorf, the Atlantic circulation has already weakened by 15%. He predicts that in the next 20-30 years, the Gulf Stream is only likely to get weaker that will inevitably influence weather patterns of increasing storms, heatwaves, and sea level rises.
Rahmstorf together with colleagues from Maynooth University and University College, London concludes that the current weakening of the Atlantic circulation has not been seen in over 1,000 years, after analyzing sediments in Greenland ice cores.
The AMOC has only been directly measured since 2004.
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Worrying Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Trends
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is a large ocean current system that acts as a conveyor belt of warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic driven by temperature and salt content.
For decades, scientists have predicted the weakening of the AMOC due to global heating, which raised concerns about the inevitable collapse of the Gulf Stream. The new study suggests that the tipping point is only decades away, but continued high emissions of greenhouse gases would bring it even closer.
Andrew Meijers, deputy science leader of polar oceans at the British Antarctic Survey not involved in the study, says that the AMOC heavily contributes to the global climate, especially in North American and Europe. Hence, the evidence of its ongoing weakening is critical evidence in future projections of global and regional climates.
Although the Gulf Stream, and by extension, the Atlantic circulation won't collapse in the near future, authors of the study warn that current trends could become unstable by the end of the century if warnings go unheeded. Scientists point to the increasing risks of stronger hurricanes felt on the US east coast and stronger heatwaves felt across Europe as tell-tale signs of the impending dangers.
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