The US Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday, October 8, that electric vehicles only make up 30% of cars on the road, which is not enough to meet climate goals. They warned that emissions from the global transportation sector are expected to increase through 2050 unless world leaders establish legal and regulatory changes.
According to Scientific American, transportation is the single-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the US and ranks fourth in global emissions.
Projected Increase in Transportation Demands Call for Faster Adoption of Electric Vehicles to Stop Global Warming
Global Transportation Emissions Continue to Rise
The news outlet further reported that although electric vehicles would make up a significant portion of sales by midcentury, especially in China and Europe, they would still account for 30% of cars on the road. Still, this number is far from the target to stave off global warming.
The International Energy Agency said that the number of electric vehicles on the road should increase by at least 60% b 2030, and the sale of traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars would need to end by 2035.
Moreover, the agency shared on their website that global transportation emissions had increased by less than 0.5% in 2019 compared to the 1.9% annually since 2000 because of the increasing use of electric vehicles, improvements in technology, and greater use of biofuels.
However, transportation remains the largest contributor to greenhouse gases emissions of about 24% of direct carbon dioxide emission from fuel combustion. Road vehicles are responsible for 75% of transport carbon emissions, while aviation and shipping vehicles also continue to rise.
IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario pushes for implementing policies that "Avoid, Shift, Improve" transportation. The agency helps transition from gasoline- or diesel-based transportation to using electric vehicles by analyzing technologies and transport systems that countries develop to reduce oil dependence and reduce greenhouse gases.
More so, they hope to improve passenger and freight transport access while lessening air pollution, road fatalities, and congestion.
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Consumption of Energy Expected to Double by 2050
Michael Dwyer, an analyst at EIA, said that the increased use of electric vehicles might also mean manufacturers would shift their attention away from improving fuel economy.
EIA's report found that fossil fuel production would continue to grow despite the proliferation of electric vehicles to help meet demands and support grid reliability as intermittent generation of wind and solar energy also increases. Renewable energy is expected to become the main source of electricity generation in the coming years.
Energy consumption is predicted to double by 2050 without major interventions as rapid population growth looms in many parts of the world. The report also mentioned COVID-19 related factors that caused the energy flatlining in the US, Canada, and Europe.
"There's a tug of war there between efficiency and travel demand," Scientific American quoted Dwyer. "So there are countries that have much stricter fuel economy standards, particularly Europe, but as time goes on, travel demand starts to win that tug of war."
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