A recent study by Dartmouth College has found that climate change is affecting Major League Baseball (MLB) with higher temperatures contributing to over 500 home runs since 2010. SciTech Daily reported that the study examined data from more than 100,000 games and 220,000 hits and concluded that as temperatures increase, air density decreases, allowing baseballs to fly farther.
Although climate change has only played a small role in recent home run records, the researchers estimate that this figure could increase to 10% or more by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current pace. The study also explored how temperature changes could impact home run rates at various ballparks.
Climate Change Enhances Baseball Performance Due to Warmer Temperatures That Reduce Air Density, Causing Balls To Fly Farther [Study]
'Climate-ball' Era Baseball
In the history of MLB, there came the low-scoring dead-ball era and then followed by the live-ball era when power hitters were famous. Regrettably, there was also a steroid era between the 1990s to early 2000s. Now, experts are saying that the baseball league has reached the "climate-ball" era where higher temperatures from global warming strongly affect the outcome of the game.
The study, titled "Global Warming, Home Runs, and the Future of America's Pastime" published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, found that over 500 home runs since 2010 can be linked with higher temperatures due to climate change and global warming.
Although it is now only about 1% of the total home runs, the rise in temperatures could increase it up to 10% by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions and climate change continue. Justin Mankin, the senior author of the study and an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth, said that the batted ball could fly farther on a warm day given that baseball is a game of ballistics.
They also examined major league ballparks in the US to see how many home runs per year could rise with each 1-degree Celsius increase in global temperature. They found that the open-air Wrigley Field would experience the largest spike with over 15 home runs per season. Meanwhile, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium fall in the middle but will experience the same effect as temperatures rise.
The team also noted that night games can lessen the influence of temperature and air density on how far the ball could travel. The close stadium Tropicana Field would nearly eliminate it.
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Statistics on Increased Home Runs Over the Decades
As Forbes reported, citing the data from Baseball Reference, the number of home runs in MLB has increased almost 50% over the last five decades, from 0.78 per game between 1963 and 1972 to 1.14 per game from 2013 to 2022.
The increase in home runs has resulted from several factors, such as the use of performance-enhancing drugs, an alleged change to the balls, and a greater emphasis on optimizing launch angle for power.
While the effect of air density on the flight of baseballs is well-documented, with Coors Field's thin air making it one of the most hitter-friendly parks, there is little academic research on the issue. The 2019 MLB season, the final year of the Dartmouth study, saw a record-breaking 5.7% of balls hit in play being home runs, which was almost double the rate of 50 years ago.
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