This is the outcome that is predicted by a machine learning earth system model, that predicts an outcome that is not compatible with some assertions. One speculation is that climate change will affect phytoplankton, which is at the bottom of the food chain in the ocean. Presented in the Nature Geoscience, on January 27, 2020.
One of the conundrums presented by global warming is how it affects the earth's oceans. One thinking about it is how phytoplankton biomass is affected by a stratified ocean that exhibits vast changes due to climate change. When the temperature of the world's seas starts rising, both cold and warm strata will not mix because of cold, and hot water temperatures. If this happens the circulation is decreased, and the nutrients will not nourish the top layer.
Most of the models based on climate have circulatory currents moving up and down. This has been the case and kept everything normal until now. As the sea conditions become erratic, so would the climate, but it will affect phytoplankton severely. Many sea animals really on this bounty, lack of it will have dire consequences for all denizens of the seas. But, there is no real correlation to the lab and actual sea-like conditions.
One way to know how much plankton is in the water, just take a chlorophyll sample and measure it. Do that now. there is less chlorophyll in lower latitude parts of the globe, where it's getting hot. Moving away from the earth's equator, there is a bit of cold going on too.
In the low latitudes, most plankton will have less chlorophyll and cells are more than just chlorophyll. A small drop of chlorophyll will be enough for plankton, this gives energy and sunlight is a big part of its growth too. The rumple in the sheet is how much actual biomass is there, where hot and cold water does not mix. So, there is a discrepancy in how much biomass is there in warmer areas, more data is needed.
Going out in actual surveys is the solution to dispel doubts about how much plankton is there in these latitudes. Scientists gathered samples from 10,000 spots all over the world's oceans and analyzing all of them to know better. A global map of the plankton groups is identified in warm locations. The most numerous of the groups is picophytoplankton, which is about 80 to 90% of plankton biomass in the warmer regions.
From these expeditions, a global map and the biomass, with temperatures were parameters for the models to programmed. The artificial intelligence generated a surprise result for the researcher to digest. According to the model by 2100 A.D, there is 10 to 20% increase in all regions, that counted the heating up of oceans. Or it meant that plankton survived and became abundant.
Based on the prediction of less biomass, there is a marked increase that is "predicted" by the simulation. Machine learning is not like the biases of humans, just give the data, and the machine generates all the possibilities to get a better option. Not settle for just one outcome, instead of several that is better than a bad outcome. Another is that phytoplankton does adapt to prevalent conditions and will overcome.
