The first Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases arrived in Italy in January instead of February, a non-profit research entity claims.
Italy's first COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Codogno, Lombardy, on February 21. "This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The outbreak rapidly escalated to a national level epidemic, amid the WHO declaration of a pandemic," according to the study of Stefano Merler.
Merler told in a news conference with Italy's top health officials, "We realized that there were a lot of infected people in Lombardy well before Feb. 20, which means the epidemic had started much earlier," according to The New York Times.
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A member of the Bruno Kessler Foundation, Merler added, "In January for sure, but maybe even before. We'll never know."
As of April 25, Italy has over 190,000 confirmed cases, 60,000 recoveries, and 25,000 deaths due to COVID-19. It had over 12,000 deaths by the end of March, one month after it was discovered in Codogno.
The arrival of individuals with COVID-19 at the same time in Italy also played a huge part in the sudden spike of deaths.
Social distancing would have lessened the spread
The World Health Organization advises everyone to follow social distancing, keeping a one-meter distance between individuals to avoid acquiring COVID-19. This will prevent breathing in droplets from a sneeze or cough that may contain the COVID-19 virus.
In a separate study based on a sample of cases in April, 44.1% and 24.7% of infections started in nursing homes and families, respectively. 10.8% were infected at the hospital, while 4.2% occurred at the workplace.
To prevent the outbreak from reaching Italy, it suspended flights to and from China on January 31 after two Chinese tourists tested positive for COVID-19 in Rome. But it was already too late.
Hundreds of people die to COVID-19 every day in Italy. Nearly 2,000 people died overnight on March 27 and 28. Since March 10, the number of deaths has not gone down below 150 per day. The Daily Mail says the number of cases per day is increasing by 2%.
A new hope
Despite the huge number of deaths that haven't slowed down, the newspaper Corriere della Sera said the country will reopen in the next four Mondays.
Other media reported bars and restaurants could reopen in the second half of May. Their customers
But the Italian government will impose strict hygiene measures and continue social distancing.
Customers in bars will have to follow social distancing - "one meter between customers who will preferably not be seated in air conditioned spaces where viruses spread more easily," according to the Daily Mail. All shops that are less than 40 square meters will only accommodate one customer at a time.
Italy declared a nationwide lockdown on March 9, the longest of all European countries. Three days later, it ordered all shops except pharmacies and grocery stores to close.
The country has performed over a million tests, with some regions being tested for any sign of immunity. Italy has spoken about phase two, wherein "Italy learns to live with the virus until a vaccine or effective treatment is developed."
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