Contrary to some positive predictions, some experts believe that the pandemic is not going anywhere soon. COVID-19, they said will be with us for a rather long time.
"It's not over until it's over," said South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Sunday after a second wave of the virus hit the East Asian country. Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist, said that exactly how long the virus will be present still remains to be seen. It might take more than a few months to a couple of years before it goes away.
A single round of social distancing, such as the closing of schools and workplaces, limiting the sizes of gatherings, and lockdowns, experts said will not be sufficient in the long-term.
It might be helpful, they said, to condition our pandemic state of mind that it is not going away too soon. It is a wave that will keep on rolling and rolling before it completely disappears, wreaking havoc wherever it lands.
Report on Waves
John Scott Russell, a Scottish Engineer and Naval Architect, first spotted a soliton in 1834 as it traveled along the Union Canal. He tried following it until its height gradually diminished, and after a chase of one or two miles, it disappears in the winding of the channel.
Similarly, the pandemic, he said, will stay for the foreseeable future before it gradually diminishes and disappears. However, it will experience a variety of dimensions and dynamics, depending on one's geographic location and policies in place.
Dr. Lipsitch said that an analogy exists between weather forecasting and disease modeling. Both of them are simple mathematical descriptions as to how a system works. Changing the weather, he said, may be impossible, but changing the behavior is possible by balancing and coordinating political, economic, sociological, and psychological factors.
Furthermore, The New York Times reported that Lipsitch described a variety of shapes the pandemic wave may take in the coming months:
The first scenario depicts an initial wave of cases, which we are currently experiencing, followed by "peaks and valleys," that will gradually diminish over a year or two. Meanwhile, the second scenario supposes that a larger "fall peak" will follow the current wave, with subsequent smaller waves after - it is the same thing that happened during the 1918 flu pandemic.
Lastly, scenario 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a "slow burn" with less-pronounced ups and downs of the wave. But whichever scenario materializes, everyone shall be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity.
A Closer Look at Various Scenarios
The Harvard team took a closer look at the various scenarios by simulating the transmission dynamics using the latest COVID-19 data and data from related viruses.
One graph from their paper showed that social distancing is "on" when the number of cases reaches a specific prevalence in the population, and it is "off" when cases drop to a lower threshold.
On the other hand, the green graph on their paper represents the corresponding, gradual increase in herd immunity. While another diagram shows the effects of seasonality, depicting a slower spread of the virus during warmer months.
What is clear overall is that one-time social distancing will not be effective for long-term scenarios, plus it takes too long to achieve herd immunity. Furthermore, a lack of vaccine could suggest that our pandemic state of mind might as well persist until 2021 or 2022, which surprised many even the experts.
