Under the worst-case scenarios presented during the climate change estimates of the United Nations, global temperatures would rise more than two degrees Celsius by 2100, resulting in at least 1.5 meters rise in sea level and a series of devastating consequences for both people and the planet.
However, a new study from the University of Colorado Boulder found that such high-emission scenarios utilized as baseline forecasts in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC global assessments of the UN, have not precisely revealed the slowing growth rate in the worldwide economy
This new research recently published in Environmental Research Letters, is said to be the most laborious analysis of how forecasted climate scenarios which the IPCC established have evolved since their establishment in 2005.
Spanish Minister of Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera, Chilean Minister of Environment and COP25 President Carolina Schmidt and UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa embrace ahead of the UNFCCC COP25 climate conference on November 30, 2019 in Madrid, Spain.
Emissions Not Growing as Fast as the IPCC Assessments
The study investigators said the good news is that emissions are not growing almost as fast as the IPCC assessments have specified.
The bad news, though, according to reports on the new finding, is that the IPCC is not utilizing the most precise and updated "climate scenarios in its planning and planning recommendations."
According to the study's lead author, Matt Burgess, who is also a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at CU Boulder, "If we are making policy based on anticipating future possibilities," then there should be the use of the most accurate scenarios possible. As a result, he continued, with realistic scenarios, there would be better policies.
It was in 1988 when the IPCC was first established. It provides policymakers worldwide with regular assessments based on research on the present and forecasted climate change effects.
Furthermore, the IPCC's reports, with its sixth, due for release in 2022, play a vital role in shaping global climate policy.
Projections Compare
To find out if ICC results are on track, the researchers compared estimates from the latest report published in 2014 and data utilized for the preparation of the forthcoming report to collect data from 2005 to 2017 on country-level GDP or gross domestic product, fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, possible use of energy and population trends in this century.
Burgess and his co-investigators presented that even prior to this COVID-19 crisis, because of slower-than-estimated per-capita GDP growth and a decreasing worldwide use of coal, these "high emission scenarios were already well off-track" this year and look likely to keep on diverging from reality over the coming years and beyond.
The dampening impact of this pandemic on the global economy only emphasizes their results, the study authors said.
Consequently, they claim that these high-emission scenarios need not be utilized as the baseline scenarios in global climate assessments, which intend to embody where the world is headed minus added climate mitigation policy.
Climate Experts' Fear
In terms of climate change scenarios, some scientists said they fear that growth would be higher than the estimated scenarios, and, according to Burgess, "we'll be taken by surprise by climate changes." Nonetheless, he added, that is not likely to happen.
This new study contributes to a growing literature arguing that economic growth and the use of energy are presently over-estimated for this century.
In addition, the study points out as well that the high-emissions scenarios in which the IPCC do not completely account for economic impairments from climate change.
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