Chinese Large Modular Space Station Update: Out-of-Control Rocket Could Reenter Atmosphere on May 8

Early space monitoring forecasts claim that a Chinese large modular space station that China launched last week would reenter the atmosphere "around May 8."

"U.S. Space Command is aware of and tracking the location of the Chinese Long March 5B in space, but its exact entry point into the Earth's atmosphere cannot be pinpointed until within hours of its reentry, which is expected around May 8," Lt. Col. Angela Webb, U.S. Space Command Public Affairs, told CBS News.

"Until then, the 18th Space Control Squadron will be offering daily updates to the rocket body's location on www.space-track.org beginning May 4. We will provide additional information as it becomes available," the statement read.

China's Long March 5B successfully launched the 22.5-metric-ton Tianhe core module into space on April 28. The 30-meter-tall, 5-meter-diameter Long March 5B first stage, on the other hand, achieved orbital velocity instead of falling in a predetermined location downrange.

According to space monitoring by the US 18th Space Control Squadron, the empty rocket body is now in a 162 by 306-kilometer orbit, down from a 170 by 372-kilometer orbit.

The core stage would be pulled into Earth by increasing collisions with molecules in the Earth's atmosphere if it is unable to restart its engines. Because of atmospheric variability and other factors - as well as the stage's high velocity - precise forecasts of when and where the stage would reenter can't be made a few hours before the reentry.

The orbital inclination of the Long March 5B core stage is 41.5 degrees, which means the rocket body moves a little further north of New York, Madrid, and Beijing, and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could reenter somewhere within this range.

Several Agencies Report Different Time and Date of Reentry

According to a May 4 report from the Aerospace Corporation, the Chinese large modular space station's reentry would be on May 9 at 12:37 a.m. ET with a margin of error of 28 hours.

The Russian space agency Roscosmos also shared its Automated Warning System on Hazardous Situations in Outer Space report on May 4 that the Long March 5B was scheduled for an unregulated reentry.

Russian analysts expect a reentry time of 9:00 p.m. Eastern to 4:00 p.m. Eastern on May 7, with more precise forecasts to come in the coming days.

China has yet to comment on the Long March 5B's status. In the years 2021-22, the nation plans to launch ten more satellites and launch vehicles to complete the construction of its three-module space station.

Should We Worry About the Landing?

While most space debris burns up in the atmosphere, the rocket's size (22 tons) has raised concerns that large sections of the rocket could reenter and cause harm if they reach populated areas.

However, Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at Harvard University's Astrophysics Center, told CNN that the case is "not the end of the world."

"I don't think people should take precautions. The risk that there will be some damage or that it would hit someone is pretty small -- not negligible, it could happen -- but the risk that it will hit you is incredibly tiny. And so I would not lose one second of sleep over this on a personal threat basis," he said.

"There are much bigger things to worry about," he added.

Because of the rocket's altitude, pinpointing where debris might end up is almost impossible at this stage, according to McDowell. Even minor variations in circumstances will radically alter the trajectory.

"We expect it to reenter sometime between the eighth and 10th of May. And in [those two days], it goes around the world 30 times," McDowell said.

He went on to say that the vehicle is driving at about 18,000 miles per hour.

McDowell also warned the public not to trust anybody who claims that the rocket would crash in this location.

"Don't believe them at least a few hours before the reentry because we're just not going to know in advance," he said.

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