A recent study calculates the potential lifespan of people living in the 21st century. In the past decades, the population that lived more than 100 years old increased, with almost half a million individuals around the globe. On the other hand, the supercentenarians, or people who live over 110 years, are slightly declining in numbers.
Rate of Supercentenarians Could Increase Between 2020 and 2100
In 1997, France's Jeanne Calment was recorded as the oldest living person, reaching the age of 122. Today, the oldest living human is Japan's Kane Tanaka, currently at the age of 118.
According to the study published in the journal Demographic Research entitled "Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections," 21st-century people will slowly achieve an increase in lifespan. The study also adds that the lifespan could peak to 125 to 130 years by the end of the year 2100.
Based on the study, the experts from the University of Washington observed the extremes of lifespans through statistical modeling. The biggest challenge the researchers faced is the lack of scientific and statistical data to confirm the number of people that reached 110 years of age or longer. In addition, this conundrum is being debated by other experts, too, as there is not any reliable evidence to prove the specific maximum age recorded at death, reports Daily Mail.
The scientific community is pretty much divided on this matter. Some theorize that the natural lifespan limit relies on disease and cell decay, while some believe that there is no maximum limit when it comes to aging, as shown by the recorded supercentenarians.
Human Lifespan Probable to Reach Up to 130 Years
University of Washington's statistics expert Michael Pearce stated that people today are invested in the extremes of human life such as the Olympic records and space explorations. He added that these factors are considered in the study, as it pushes the lifespan challenge of the humans in the 21st century.
But longevity, on the other hand, has consequences. It may affect economic scopes and government policies. On a smaller scale, individuals may also change their own perspectives on lifestyle and health standards.
Pearce, along with his colleagues expert in sociology and statistics, used the most common statistical process, also known as the Bayesian statistics, to find the longest lifespan that will be recorded as the year 2100 closes. The study revealed that the record of Jeanne Calment's 122 years of lifespan could potentially be surpassed by at least one individual who will reach between the length of 125 and 132 years of age, reports Science Daily.
The International Database on Longevity, courtesy of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, was also utilized in part of the research. The records acquired from the database include information on the supercentenarians that are monitored across different countries in North America, Asia, and Europe.
Combining the reported maximum age at death and data from 13 countries through the Bayesian method, the experts were able to get the results of probability that will occur between 2020 to 2100. The findings include the following:
France's record of 122 years and 164 days will be surpassed with a 100 percent probability
An individual will reach an age between 124 to 127 years, with 99 and 68 percent probability, respectively
A longer lifespan of 130 years will be reached in a rare occasion, with a 13 percent probability
Living over 135 years of age is 'extremely unlikely'
The experts concluded that even if people reached 110 years of age, they will still die at the same rate. A number of factors, including experiences and disease, heavily influence the human lifespan, and people who reach supercentenarians and over are evidently robust people, reports Yahoo.
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