The Atlantic Ocean current system to which the Gulf Stream belongs has become unstable. The new study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research showed that the Gulf stream is at its weakest in over 1,000 years and approaching a tipping point where it could collapse due to climate change.
The study titled "Observation-based Early-warning Signals for a Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation," published in Nature Climate Change, described how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is exhibiting a weak mode. AMOC is responsible for the mild temperatures in Europe by moving heat from the tropics to the northern hemisphere.
A potential collapse of this major Atlantic Ocean current system could pose severe consequences, such as pushing temperatures in Europe down by 18 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Possible Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Current System
According to Daily Mail, the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" is based on the collapse of the major Atlantic Ocean current system, AMOC. As of now, the gulf stream is at its weakest in over a millennium based on an earlier study that explored whether it could be caused by underlying stability.
AMOC's collapse was not even considered possible not until scientists recorded that it is slowly weakening over the last century. Dr. Niklas Boers, the lead author of the study, said that the loss of dynamic stability would mean that the AMOC has reached its tipping point beyond repair.
Analysis of the AMOC's 'fingerprints' or its surface temperature and salinity patterns showed that the Atlantic Ocean's major ocean current system has reached its "critical threshold." Unfortunately, reaching beyond that could lead to collapse.
The findings are alarming and surprising even for the researchers. However, they think that it would unlikely lead to an abrupt state transition. This transition anticipates stability loss in AMOC, which will be followed by the inflow of substantial amounts of fresh water in the North Atlantic from the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Arctic sea ice, and then heavy precipitation that would cause a river runoff.
Researchers reminded that while AMOC is weakening, it has not yet reached its tipping point, which means it is still in strong circulation. Still, it is uncertain when that will happen.
Freshwater Inflow Caused Weakening of Atlantic Ocean's Current System
There are a number of factors why AMOC is weakening, and that includes climate change and global warming, according to Science Daily. Aside from that, freshwater inflow from the melting ice sheets of Greenland and sea ice of the Arctic region contribute to the effect the warming waters do on the Atlantic Ocean's circulation.
Since fresh water is lighter than saltwater, it reduces the tendency of the water to sink from the surface into the depths of the ocean, which drives overturning and affecting the current system.
Dr. Boers said that excessive amounts of freshwater in saltwater bodies, such as in the Atlantic Ocean added in the last century, affected the ocean current system. Researchers are reviewing their models to assess presented observational evidence on how close or far will the AMOC reach its tipping point.
While AMOC still has not reached it yet, it is important to further investigate the factors that exacerbate this problem, which is most likely linked to human-caused climate change.
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