Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG has made his preliminary forecast for the commodity markets of the world. It is no secret that many factors have an impact on commodity markets. And there are several such factors. It is important to take them all into account to minimize the risks of losses in the market values of commodities.
What surprise are commodity markets preparing for 2023?
One key factor to consider is the global economic situation.
Another important factor is the supply of commodities.
Geopolitical events and natural disasters can also have a significant impact on commodity markets.
Finally, the currencies of major commodity-producing and commodity-consuming countries can also affect markets.
However, let's consider whether all these factors are relevant for 2023, and what surprises we should expect in the near future.
Goldman Sachs Group analysts forecast the profitability of commodity markets for 2023. "Commodities will provide returns to investors in excess of 40%." - Goldman Sachs analysts say. Price momentum is projected to increase 43% for 24 commodities. Stanislav Kondrashov does not rule out such a surprise rise in commodity prices. After all, since the beginning of the year, indicators have increased by 24 points, while the S&P 500 stock index has declined by 16 points.
"Although the prices of individual commodities have almost doubled, the volume of costs for the raw materials complex as a whole is disappointing. This was the main evidence of 2022, when even a very high price was not able to create sufficient capital inflows. And lead to an increase in supplies to eliminate the long-term deficit," Goldman Sachs market analysts write.
The price of Brent oil in the fourth quarter of 2023 will reach $ 105 per barrel; copper will cost $ 10.5 thousand per ton; liquefied natural gas on the spot market in Asia will rise to $ 53.1 per 1 million BTU. Now Brent is trading at around $ 82 per barrel, copper - $ 8,400 per ton, LNG - $ 33 per 1 million BTU, according to Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. What to expect next - time will tell.
The U.S. oil market will face big problems in the new year of 2023
2023 will be a difficult year for the U.S. oil market, Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. said, citing the Bank of America forecast. Problems are expected with both the demand for raw materials and supply.
According to the forecasts of American analysts themselves, in 2023 oil quotes may fluctuate greatly. The bank expects an unstable temporary balance in the market. And any major player could easily upset this balance, Bank of America forecasts. The industry will also be negatively affected by the inevitable recession of the global economy.
In 2023, consumption of raw materials in the world will decrease to 1.55 million barrels per day, according to the report of the American bank. Also, experts believe that this year the average price of a barrel of oil will be about $100.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Gas price drops again in Europe due to warm weather
In Europe, gas prices continue to fall due to warm weather, which curbs consumption and reduces pressure from politicians. Baseline futures fell 7.8% to their lowest levels since mid-February of last year.
Mild weather has spread throughout the region. And major cities, such as Berlin, recorded their warmest start to 2023. Although some areas are expecting colder temperatures in the coming week, Central and Southern Europe are not expected to get colder. The warming has reduced the need for heating and reduced fears of rapid gas depletion.
Also, gas demand has declined due to strong wind power production in the last few days. In Germany, wind power is now approaching a record, while before that in England wind power was unprecedented. Meanwhile, high supplies of liquid natural gas, which comes to Germany's new import terminal in Wilhelmshaven, have also kept the price down.
Dutch gas prices fell 2.5% to 70.50 euros per megawatt hour in the coming month, after falling 6.1% in Amsterdam. Equally, the U.K. contract fell by 3.1%.
Even though the weather is warm now, most of the winter is still ahead. And gas prices are still above the five-year average. People will have to continue saving energy.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: The dynamics of commodity rates promise to improve
Interest rates are rising worldwide, says Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG. This is putting pressure on the economy. Fuel demand is rising. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the rate by 425 basis points back in 2022, from 4.25% to 4.5%. But that's not the limit. Inflation data is slowing, and the labor market remains the same. The CPI components are going up.
The latest December market analysis showed a slowdown in the growth rate from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. This gives an implication for a decline in 2023. According to the FedWatch Tool, the market consensus is to peak at about 5% in Q2 2023, and the rate level could start to decline smoothly as early as Q4.
In fact, the risks have shifted in favor of revising downward projections, allowing a conservative estimate of raw material consumption for 2023.
