Climate Change Unleashes Ancient Pathogens from Permafrost; 'Black Swans' Pose Risk to Modern Ecosystems

As climate change progresses, ancient pathogens, dormant in permafrost for hundreds of thousands of years, are resurfacing. A study, titled "Time-Travelling Pathogens and Their Risk to Ecological Communities" and published in PLOS Computational Biology, suggests that approximately 1% of these pathogens could pose significant threats to present-day ecosystems.

Giovanni Strona, a co-author of the study from the University of Helsinki, described it as the first attempt to quantitatively model the potential ecological impact of these "time-traveling invaders."

RUSSIA-ENVIRONMENT-PERMAFROST — Ice forms at the gallery walls of the Museum of the History of Permafrost Studies located beneath the main building of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute in the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk on November 26, 2018. MLADEN ANTONOV/AFP via Getty Images

Dormant Pathogens Might Reactivate and Reproduce Due to Melting Permafrost

Permafrost is composed of ice-bound soil, gravel, and sand, which can be found in Arctic regions such as Alaska, Greenland, Russia, China, and parts of Northern and Eastern Europe.

Live Science explains that microbes, like bacteria and viruses, can be trapped and remain in suspended animation for thousands or even millions of years within the permafrost. However, during warmer periods, metabolic processes can activate these dormant microbes, leading to reproduction.

Due to global warming, some of these microbes, including disease-causing pathogens, are being released as the permafrost thaws. A notable incident occurred in 2016 when an anthrax outbreak in Siberia resulted in the deaths of thousands of reindeer and affected several people, with scientists attributing the outbreak to melting permafrost.

These released pathogens pose potential risks because modern living organisms, including humans, have not been exposed to them for an extended period, leaving contemporary ecosystems with limited defenses against them.

Giovanni Strona emphasizes that when pathogens coexist for extended periods alongside bacterial, human, or animal communities, co-evolution occurs, reducing the risks they pose to ecosystems. However, the introduction of "time-traveling invaders" presents novel elements of risk due to the lack of prior exposure and co-evolution.

Computer Simulation Shows Black Swans Can Cause Irreversible Damage

Researchers conducted computer simulations with digital pathogens from the past invading bacterial host communities, SciTech Daily reported. Surprisingly, ancient pathogens often survived and evolved in the modern world, with 3% becoming dominant.

Meanwhile, around 1% of invaders showed unpredictable impacts, leading to one-third of host species dying out or increasing diversity by 12% compared to control simulations.

Despite the seeming minor risks from this 1% of released pathogens, the researchers highlight the substantial danger due to the vast number of ancient microbes released into modern environments regularly.

Flinders University Professor Corey Bradshaw emphasizes in the news release that there is a risk of invasion by the unknown pathogens, dubbed as "black swans" because it can lead to irreversible damage that is not negligible.

The findings indicate that rare events of ancient pathogens escaping from permafrost and ice can lead to severe ecological impacts. In some plausible cases, the invasion of a single ancient pathogen reduced the host community size by 30% compared to non-invasive controls.