NOAA Forecasts Increased Chances of Atlantic Hurricanes Due to Hot Ocean Temperatures and Late Arrival of El Niño

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced an increase in the Atlantic hurricane prediction this summer and fall.

Above-Average Hurricane Season

The hurricane season is already above normal, and the agency doubled the number of expected storms this year. Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center increased their prediction for the ongoing hurricane season from a near-normal to an above-average activity level.

According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance for an above-average hurricane season which is twice the previous forecast of 30% announced last May. The earlier forecast was based on a near-normal season with a 40% chance which has now dropped to 25%. While a typical year has 14 named storms, NOAA forecasts 14 to 21, an increase over the initial forecast of 12 to 17 in May.

Among the named hurricanes, the agency expects that 6 to 11 of them will develop into hurricanes. This is more than the five to nine predicted storms in May. Seven hurricanes are assumed to fall under the normal category, with two to five likely to turn into major hurricanes with wind speeds of over 110 mph. In an average year, only three major hurricanes are expected. The number of storms and their strength is determined using Accumulated Cyclone Energy, and this critical measurement is also expected to double the normal for a year.

The agency's outlook did not include storm tracks or expected places to get hit. However, a busy hurricane season means there is a double chance that a storm will land on the East Coast of the U.S., as explained by lead hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans.

Other groups make hurricane season predictions and have increased their forecasts. For instance, experts from Colorado State University increased their projections for named storms from 13 in April to 18 in August. The number of expected storms that will likely develop into hurricanes is increased from six in the April forecast to nine in the current month.

Significant Contributors of Nasty Hurricanes

The increase in the predictions is attributed to the continuous warming of ocean waters in the North Atlantic since the hotter temperatures contribute to climate change. The experts measured the temperature of ocean waters in the main storm development region, between the western tip of Africa and the Caribbean. It was found that the water temperature is 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal and the hottest since the records began in 1950.

Hot water serves as fuel for hurricanes as the storms absorb the heat energy from the ocean. This means that as the water gets hotter, the storm gets more humid, moister, and stronger.

Another contributing factor to nasty hurricanes is the slower emergence of El Niño over the Atlantic Ocean. As a climate pattern that naturally warms the central Pacific, El Niño tends to reduce storm activity by choking off storms with its crosswinds and sinking air. Although El Niño gets strong in the Pacific, its effects are not yet felt in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.