NOAA Warns About Increasing Risk of Powerful X-Flares As We Near Peak of Sun’s Solar Cycle

We might experience more powerful solar flares as the Sun approaches the peak of its solar cycle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gave a recent update about solar activity and what we can expect.

Earth Should Expect More Powerful X-Flares

Due to multiple active sunspots causing a stir on the surface of the Sun on Wednesday, there is a greater likelihood of strong X-class solar flares than usual.

According to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in a statement on Wednesday (Sept. 27), there is a 15% risk of X-flares and a 40% likelihood of M-flares. There was a 5% possibility of X-class flares on Sept. 20, just one week prior.

This is due to 10 sunspot groups facing Earth and having magnetic fields of mixed polarity, making them a ticking time bomb for intense flares. The strength of solar flares, which are bursts of X-ray radiation from the surface of the Sun, is based on how much magnetic energy has built up and been released.

Solar flares can disrupt radio communications on Earth by ionizing the ionosphere, preventing radio signals from being reflected off it between sender and receiver.

According to Daniel Brown, an associate professor of astronomy and science communication at Nottingham Trent University, a flare is a significant release of energy from the Sun, specifically from an active region or solar spot. These are brought on by the twisting and energy storage of magnetic field lines, which eventually causes them to snap and realign themselves. This causes a significant release of material and electromagnetic radiation.

As the Sun approaches its solar maximum, which occurs at the culmination of the Sun's 11-year solar cycle, more powerful solar flares like X-flares become more frequent. Since 2025 is predicted to be the next solar maximum, the Sun's most energetic phase of the cycle is rapidly approaching.

According to Brown, such X-class flares can result in protracted radiation storms that can harm satellites. There is also a potential that travelers on planes flying close to the poles could receive very modest radiation exposures. These flares may result in widespread blackouts and transmission issues, but these would be confined and unique to particular communication channels, like shortwave radio.

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Solar Flare Classifications

Depending on their intensity, solar flares are categorized as A, B, C, M, or X, with X-class flares being the most potent and infrequent. X10 flares are ten times more potent than X1 flares. According to Brown, the most potent X-class flares have been compared to emit energy equivalent to billions of hydrogen bombs.

On Aug. 7, a powerful solar flare disrupted radio and navigation signals across North America, and space weather forecasters had to issue warnings because of energetic particles hitting Earth. The X1.5-rated flare was the 20th X flare in the 11-year solar cycle, which will peak in 2024.

According to solar physicist Keith Strong on X, formerly Twitter, on the daylit side of the Earth, which includes much of the United States and Canada, the Pacific Ocean, the X1.5 Flare caused an R3 (strong) radio blackout event. At frequencies below 5 MHz, navigation signals weakened and were most seriously affected.

The flare was produced by the largest and busiest sunspot group that could be seen on the Sun's disk. It reportedly appeared just two days after a weaker X-flare was observed on Aug. 5.