Meteor Shower Forecast: Comet 46P/Wirtanen Will Light the Earth’s Skies Next Week

A meteor will shine on the skies next week. Continue reading to learn more about the upcoming cosmic phenomenon.

Meteor Shower To Shine Next Week

A new analysis predicts that on Tuesday (Dec. 12), a meteor shower will occur in the southern hemisphere's night skies as Earth travels through a comet's debris cloud. Although Comet 46P/Wirtanen had previously been close to Earth, no prior comet showers have been noted.

"We predict the birth of a new shower on Dec. 12, 2023, between 8:00 and 12:30 UT," the authors wrote. "The location of the radiant is close to the star λ-Sculptoris star, so a possible name for the shower is λ-Sculptorids."

As comet 46P/Wirtanen has never been seen to produce a meteor shower, it isn't easy to estimate the shower's predicted level (ZHR). Nonetheless, no storm is anticipated due to the trail's spatial density.

Similarities exist between this circumstance and the 2021 Arids. There is a chance that watchers will see the emergence of a new meteor shower, predicted to peak on December 12, 2023, at 10:14:00 UT. The radiant will be at DEC=-38.63 and RA=7.28 degrees. The meteors appear dull and slow, with a geocentric velocity of only 10.25 km/s.

We will encounter a dense area of space debris at roughly the same time every year if a comet has left a track of these tiny rocks that cross the Earth's orbit. This will result in a meteor shower with a high concentration of meteors visible in the sky.

Comets that produce meteor showers often orbit the Sun in broad, oval-shaped ellipses and approach Earth and the Sun in predictable ways. Nevertheless, comet 46P/Wirtanen does not travel along this similar orbit, which explains why we haven't previously witnessed a meteor shower from it.

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Upcoming Meteor Shower Might Not Be Visible

While the idea is exciting, and many look forward to watching the meteor shower, experts warn that it may not be spectacular.

When the comet gets closer to the Sun, more material is ejected, and it subsequently travels on an orbit that is periodically bent and clumped together by Jupiter's gravity. This implies that to trigger a meteor shower, we must not only "cross" the space debris path of 46P but also do so when an orbital debris cloud passes along that route. In the research, the authors model the trajectory and forecast a potential material clump we might encounter in December. According to Daniel Brown, an associate professor in astronomy and science communication at Nottingham Trent University, we might not have expelled it from 46P yet, or it was not bundled up so tightly when we previously missed it.

The debris encountered from 46P is expected to be relatively low in velocity and composed of tiny particles. Meteors would, therefore, be extremely faint and challenging to see.

This is going to be a pretty ordinary shower. It will be most visible in the southern hemisphere if it can be seen at all. It is anticipated that only the largest of these particles would be visible due to their estimated size and shallow velocity about Earth.

Many will usually only be detectable by vision or reported through radio waves. Moreover, the projected rates are extremely low. Therefore, we truly do not anticipate anything akin to the Perseids.

Brad Gibson, director of the E.A. Milne Centre for Astrophysics at the University of Hull in the U.K., echoed the same sentiment. According to him, "If it does happen, it will likely not be particularly spectacular given the debris trail is likely quite minimal."

The orbital circumstances make the shower observable from Oceania and Southeast Asia.