US Mortality Rates Remain Increasing Long After COVID Pandemic; Why Are Americans Dying So Young?

In 2020, life expectancy in the US fell sharply, declining again in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic may have played a role, but it is certainly not the only cause. In August 2022, new data on provisional life expectancy estimates released by federal health officials revealed that Americans are dying younger across all demographic groups.

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Worsening Mortality of Young Americans

Public health agencies have reported that Americans are dying in abnormally high numbers long since COVID-19 waned. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Robert Califf even describes this trend as a catastrophic decline in US life expectancy.

Life insurance companies have been consistently warning over these "excess deaths," which claimed 158,000 more Americans in the first nine months of 2023 than in the same period in 2019. This figure exceeds the country's combined losses from every war since Vietnam.

Three years after the onset of COVID-19, the annual deaths for all causes are expected to be back to pre-pandemic levels or even lower. However, the death toll remains disturbing and deserving of urgent attention from the authorities.

Actuarial reports used by insurers reveal that deaths occur disproportionately among young working-age people. Indemnity experts urge the adoption of an early-warning program to monitor looming health problems among people with life insurance and keep them alive.

Unlike in the early phase of the pandemic, these deaths are not mainly among the old. According to a mortality survey report from the Society of Actuaries, deaths in the second quarter of 2023 were 6% below the pre-pandemic norm for people 65 years and older.

Meanwhile, mortality was 26% higher among insured 35-to-44-year-olds and 19% higher for 25-to-34-year-olds. This seems to continue a death spike, which peaked in the third quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, COVID-related deaths dropped 84% from the first three quarters of 2021 to the same period in 2023.

Causes of Shorter Life Expectancy

Industry analysts and actuaries predict that excess deaths will continue among people with life insurance through 2030 and will be highest at younger ages. This prediction contradicts normal mortality expectations for a vigorous population with life insurance. The worst is even expected from poorly insured Americans who are afflicted by disabilities.

Actuarial analysis of government data reveals mortality increases in diabetes and kidney, liver, and cardiovascular diseases. Drug overdoses also soared all over the country, but not primarily in the young working population.

Another factor that contributed to the worsening mortality rates in the US is the pandemic response, which public health officials have aggressively seen. Treatment protocols direct how doctors are expected to deliver COVID care, especially in hospitals and with expensive medicines.

The government is expected to ensure that future generations are protected and prepared for another pandemic. Experts suggest that emergency use authorization in vaccines must be part of any post-pandemic analysis, considering the reports of possible harm to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System.

The US can also learn from other nations, such as the UK, where government-funded independent inquiry is encouraged and supported. With each passing week of the COVID inquiry, the British government recognizes the deep flaws in how decisions were made and information provided during the pandemic.