Global Life Expectancy Went Down by 1.6 Years at the Height of COVID-19 Pandemic, Study Reveals

According to a new study, global life expectancy dropped by 1.6 years when the COVID-19 pandemic was at its peak.

Drop at Peak of COVID-19 Pandemic

Until the pandemic hit, global life expectancy was rising. It went from 49 years in 1950 to over 73 years in 2019. However, the trend ended up reversing between 2019 and 2021. This period captures the pandemic's first two years, when death rates were at their highest.

Austin Schumacher, acting assistant professor of health metric sciences from the University of Washington and the study's lead author, explains that for adults all over the world, the pandemic had a greater impact compared to any incident in 50 years.

In both 2020 and 2021, around 16 million individuals died directly from COVID-19 or from the impacts of the pandemic, such as healthcare-seeking delays.

This high death toll affected global life expectancy, which was reduced from 72.4 years (2019) to under 71.8 years (2021). Regional variations were not seen in such global figures.

Global Life Expectancy Trend

The research shows updated mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2021, which measured global health trends in different areas and over time.

As part of the work, the researchers looked into the data of 204 territories and countries. Among these, only 32 had a higher life expectancy between years 2019 and 2021. Such countries included New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, Japan, Norway, and Ireland. These countries are all high-income ones.

Schumacher explains that life expectancy went down in 84% of territories and countries during this pandemic. This shows the grave potential impacts that novel pathogens can bring.

Across countries, the largest life expectancy drops were observed in Bolivia and Peru across various age groups from 2019 to 2021. On top of this, a notably large drop was seen in Mexico City compared to other subnational areas.

When the researchers examined age groups separately, they observed that the South African provinces of Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal saw some of the largest declines in life expectancy and highest excess mortality rates across the globe. The populations of such provinces are relatively young, whose data can skew the general life expectancy averages. Hence, examining the data in such a manner could help shed light on the true effect of coronavirus on older individuals.

Considering a given location's population age distribution, it also revealed that high excess mortality rates were present in Nicaragua and Jordan.

On the other hand, Barbuda, Antigua, Barbados, and New Zealand saw some of the lowest age-adjusted mortality rates from the COVID-19 pandemic. This is despite the decline in life expectancy between 2019 and 2021 across the two Caribbean nations.

Based on the estimates, the pandemic prompted global mortality to go up for all individuals over the age of 15. A 22% higher mortality was seen among males, while a 17% increase was observed among females. On the other hand, child mortality went down by 7% in the same covered period.

Hmwe Kyu, the co-lead author of the study and an associate professor of health metric sciences at the university, notes that the study suggests that even after considering the grave life loss due to the pandemic, there has been incredible progress seen in the last 72 years since 1950.

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