The tropical rainforests near the equator aren't the only woodland areas affected by the effects of climate change. The Central Appalachian forests have been experiencing major effects such as heavy rainfall, drought and heat spells as well. And according to a new vulnerability assessment published today by the USDA Forest Service, the complex landscape reveals resilience to climate change in some areas, but also costly vulnerabilities in others.
Looking at the nine forest ecosystem types spanning a 29-million-acre region of the mountain range, researchers with the USDA Forest Service and their partners evaluated the effects that projected climate change may have on the variable landscape only to find that the complex system of habitats will likely respond in local and regional ways. The topographic complexity of the region supports some of the highest levels of biodiversity in the world, and creates microclimates that will respond differently to global climate change. But what the researchers were able to definitely determine is that if projections for the next century hold true, changes in precipitation and temperatures will likely cause the habitats to become highly unsuitable for many tree species endemic to the region.
"Information on climate change ranges in geographic and temporal scales, and is often hard to relate to forest management and planning," lead author of the vulnerability assessment and climate change outreach specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Patricia Butler says. "Our intent was to create a climate change resource that is relevant to people who work, study, recreate, manage and care about forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachians region."
With regional temperatures expected to increase in all four seasons across the Central Appalachians, researchers expect that late-season droughts and moisture deficits will become more frequent, met by potential flooding in the winter and springtime. Iconic species in the east and north, such as the American beech tree and eastern white pines, will be at a large disadvantage and will likely not find the soil or climate conditions suitable for them to establish roots. However, the researchers believe that species with ranges extending farther to the south may be at an advantage as the region warms. Eastern redcedars, post oak trees, and shortleaf pines are expected to fare well, however, few other species will likely be able to compete.
Utilizing this new information, ecologists with the Nature Conservancy are already working with public land managers and private landowners to enhance forest resilience, which is an essential step in saving the future of the Central Appalachians. Though the study revealed a bleak outlook for some species, the researchers and forest management are hopeful that will knowledgable intervention they may be able to help save the forests, even if they can't stop the climate change coming in the next one hundred years.
"Confronting the challenges of a changing climate presents opportunities for managers and other decision-makers to plan ahead, foster resilient landscapes, and ensure that the benefits forests provide are sustained into the future," Director of the Northern Research Station and the Forest Products Laboratory, Michael T. Rains says. "Forest Service science is delivering tools and information that will help those in the Central Appalachians and throughout the nation meet this challenge."
