The call to shift from the burning of fossil fuels to more environment-friendly alternatives like solar or wind energy has become stronger. In fact, the leaders of the most powerful countries in the world have made a pact to end the use of fossil fuels by 2050. Although the ultimate goal will prove helpful to everyone, experts think that the shift should not be done hastily. Instead, they suggest that it be done gradually.
Reducing the burning of fossil fuels to produce the electrical energy that people need in their homes and businesses steadily in the coming years should help prevent millions of deaths. It might also help avoid creating a spike in the short term goals as predicted by this new study by a team of researchers from the University of Leeds and Duke University.
"The team analyzed 42 varying scenarios at different timescales for what possibly could happen if a rapid transition from fossil fuel to clean energy worldwide," said Drew Shindell, a Nicholas Professor at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment, Earth Science department. "Under all the scenarios we have observed, there has been no record of a spike in the warming of the planet. What we actually saw was a decrease in the rates of the Earth's warming within the two decades from the beginning of the phase out."
The only scenarios they have observed that resulted to a significant spike in the warming of the Earth are the implausible ones. It is when the worldwide emissions were suddenly put to a halt within a short timescale. "In the real world, this type of practice won't be possible. It will simply take decades for industries and homes to make the shift to a cleaner form of energy," Shindell said.
The negotiations concerning the climate and the great shift that people are expected to do have been going on for years. It has been emphasized by the experts during discussions that a sudden shift to cleaner energy may unintentionally lead to higher temperatures. Scientists predicted that atmospheric warming might increase by half-degree Celsius. Sadly, such an increase may take up a century to reduce or even reverse.
The idea behind this would be that aerosols and other forms of fossil fuels might clear the atmosphere very quick, but the other greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere would persist. "Sadly, such a scenario could create another blanket of dangerous gases in the atmosphere causing it to warm up faster than before," the researchers added.
"Our findings, however, show that these fears may be unfounded," said Christopher J. Smith, a research fellow from Leeds University School of Earth and Environment.
These new findings come with upfront benefits to the public health too. Shindell notes that particulates of aerosol can be highly toxic, which could cause unwanted deaths each year. "So, taking the steps to reduce the emissions gradually, will slow down climate change at a rate that will also save lives."
