A new study by the Imperial College London warns that mosquitos carrying diseases such as dengue, Zika, and yellow fever would likely colonize parts of southern Europe by 2030.
The changes in weather patterns and the rising temperatures will make many parts of the world viable homes for these insects. Scientifically known as Aedes aegypti, currently only thrives in the hottest regions of the world.
As global warming continues, the range of their habitat from Africa, the Amazon, and northern Australia could expand to other countries, including Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Turkey in the next ten years. More so, the invasion in China and southern continental America will also be accelerated by around four miles every year by 2050.
Mosquitos Thrive in Warmer Conditions
Researchers from the Imperial College London and Tel Aviv University looked at models of what will happen to the planet's temperature as the emission of greenhouse gases continue to rise.
They investigated different scenarios based on the current rates of emissions and a possible future where these emissions are prevented from rising. The researchers then looked at how these changes could possibly influence the life cycle of the mosquitos.
According to Dr. Kris Murray of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the School of Public Health and the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment at Imperial, the study helps reveal the potential long-term damages of unsuccessfully curbing emissions of greenhouse gases at present.
Their findings show that this species of mosquito has already benefited from the recent climate change across many countries in the world, and the increase in suitability is now also starting to speed up. They predicted that a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions could help slow it down.
How Many Times Would Mosquitos Reproduce in the Next Decades?
The researchers looked at several lab-based studies that cultivated mosquitos at different temperatures to assess how these insects would thrive in different environments. They evaluated the effect of the temperature on the mosquito as an egg, larvae, pupae, and an adult.
They used modeling software to work out how many times mosquitos will reproduce and forecast its range in 2050. There are two potential scenarios projected, one is where gas emissions continue to rise, and another where it significantly drops.
Their results showed that the world became 1.5% per decade more suitable for mosquitos between 1950 and 2000. Moreover, future predictions show that in the next decades, if emissions decrease, the world would observe a 3.2% increase of suitability per decade, while a 4.4% increase per decade if temperatures continue to rise by 2050.
The study, which was published in the journal Nature Communications, revealed that the insects could survive for more extended periods each year because of warmer temperature. The higher peaks of growth and longer growing seasons would make them survive for a longer time.
This could mean that the usual areas afflicted by the mosquitos will be hit harder, which in turn increases the exposure of people to the potentially deadly diseases caused by the A. aegypti.
The lead author of the study, Dr. Takuya Iwamura of Tel Aviv University, said that translating their findings into maps of environmental suitability through time could help provide policy-relevant insights for mosquito and disease management under the changing climate.
