Public Health England and Cambridge University released new figures indicating that coronavirus could potentially disappear within two weeks in London. According to them, the "R" infection rate has decreased to 0.4 in the UK's capital, and the number of infections has dropped by 50% every 3.5 days.
The virus will practically be gone in the city by the end of the month if the "R" continues to drop, Express reported.
London to be Coronavirus-free
On March 23, United Kingdom has announced a nationwide lockdown at the pinnacle of the COVID-19 outbreak in the country. According to the analysis, during that time, the UK has reported approximately 213,000 new cases of the infection every day in the city of London.
But by April 7, it went down to 10,000 per day, and the death toll is decreasing by 50% roughly every week. Based on the data, it suggests that the once hardest-hit region in the United Kingdom, London, is now ahead in terms of recovery and will likely do so if the decrease in the cases continues.
Presently, the North East has 4,000 daily positive cases and an "R" rate that is double the rate of London. On Thursday night, the Members of Parliament said that the figures show a positive indication for lockdowns to be lifted region by region.
According to conservative MP Bim Afolami, the UK should also consider methods used by other countries to reopen areas region by region gradually. If it makes sense from a health perspective, England should be open to this idea as well.
The recent figures of infection in London is good news and shows that the lockdown has been working, and this could lead the way in further easing of the lockdown in London, said former Cabinet ministaid, Theresa Villiers.
"It's vital that we do find ways to let the economy recover - and London is the powerhouse of the economy," she added.
As of now, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is exploring regional lockdowns if the local "R" rate increases above one. But former health minister, Steve Brine, claims that social distancing measures must be eased simultaneously.
London in Lockdown
The data also suggest that the "R" rate was already dropping in London by the time the country has implemented its lockdown measures - including social distancing, and working from home.
However, some areas in the UK had high numbers while the country was in lockdown, and while the "R" rate in London was 2.3 on March 23, the North East and Yorkshire had a 3.4 "R" rate. This data was published this week by the Medical Research Councils Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University, rather than by the government.
Tory MP, Steve Baker, said that it is necessary for the government to publish fully and frankly the underlying advice and data so that the country can have a full public consultation, and all the black box policy making is clearly not working for the country.
Meanwhile, separate data from the University of Manchester's researchers, about 17.3 million people in Britain, may have already caught the virus, which means that the country is closer to achieving herd immunity.
For Dr. Adrian Heald, the data gives a glimmer of hope that the virus might be washed out of the country, and the more people exposed to the virus, the less easy it is for further transmission. The government should be able to implement localized lockdown measures based on the regional differences in the figures to avoid a 'one size fits all' approach to pandemic policy.
