Despite the decrease in carbon emissions in 2021, the Met Office UK predicts a 50% increase in CO2 emissions from pre-industrial times.
What is Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide?
According to LiveScience, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is predicted to soar past the threshold this year, exceeding 417 parts per million--which is a 50% increase since pre-industrial times in the 18th century.
Climate.Gov explains that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs and radiates heat. Greenhouse gases absorb the thermal infrared energy given off by the Earth's land and oceans as it is warmed by sunlight.
Unlike other greenhouse gasses such as nitrous oxide and methane, carbon dioxide is far more abundant and stays in the Earth's atmosphere longer.
Carbon dioxide is also responsible for lowering the pH levels of ocean surfaces. It dissolves into the ocean producing carbonic acid. Unfortunately, since the Industrial Revolution, which has produced more and more atmospheric carbon dioxide, it has dropped the ocean's pH level from 8.21 to 8.10, which is called ocean acidification.
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2021 Atmospheric CO2 Predictions
Using data gathered by the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii that obtained data at an altitude of 3,400 meters in the northern subtropics, the Met Office predicts a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 in 2021.
Despite a slight decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, partly due to the ongoing COVID-10 pandemic, it still isn't enough to offset previous increases.
The La Nina event, a weather pattern that usually lowers global carbon emissions, was of little help.
According to an article by the National Meteorological Service UK, the rise in CO3 emissions is driven by fossil fuel burning and deforestation. While the current La Nina is expected to promote a temporary growth in tropical forests that will soak some anthropogenic emissions.
Despite these events, CO2 levels will continuously build-up and will exceed 417 parts per million for several weeks from April to June. These levels are 50% higher than the 278 ppm of the late 18th Century.
Professor Richard Betts MBE, the leader in the production of the Met Office's annual CO2 forecast, explains, "Since CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a very long time, each year's emissions add to those from previous years and cause the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to keep increasing"
"Although the COVID-19 pandemic meant that 7% loss CO2 was emitted in 2020 that previous years, that still added to the ongoing build-up. Emissions have now returned almost to pre-pandemic levels, but their effect this year will be partly dampened," he adds.
The Keeling Curve graph, started in 1958 by Charles David Keeling, proves humanity's accelerating impact on climate systems. CO2 concentrations record first reached 348ppm in 1986.
Experts remain hopeful that a global effort to lessen and slow down the ominous effects of climate change will be hastened because of the atmospheric CO2 predictions that the 50% threshold will be passed in 2021.
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