A Chinese large modular space station is orbiting the planet uncontrollably. China's massive rocket body could crash down to Earth in the coming days.
The core module of China's Long March 5b rocket weighs about 21 tons. China unveiled the first module of a new space station it is constructing on Wednesday. The Long March 5b's central stage began orbiting the Earth uncontrollably instead of crashing into a pre-designated location in the ocean, typical of discarded rockets.
Journalist Andrew Jones, who covers China's space program for SpaceNews, said the rocket body would likely crash down to Earth within the next few days.
"I think by current standards it's unacceptable to let it reenter uncontrolled," Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer who tracks objects orbiting Earth, told Jones. "Since 1990, nothing over 10 tons has been deliberately left in orbit to reenter uncontrolled."
Jones said the rocket stage is about 100 feet long and 16 feet tall. It can burn up in Earth's atmosphere as it falls out of space. However, huge pieces of debris may remain. Since the ocean covers most of the Earth, dropping missile fragments is most likely to crash there. They could, however, pose a danger to populated areas.
Holger Krag, head of the European Space Agency's Space Safety Programme Office, told Jones that estimating the amount of remaining mass and number of fragments is often tricky without understanding the piece's geometry. He, however, clarified that a good 'rule-of-thumb' is around 20-40% of the initial dry mass.
Jones said the rocket body's orbit puts it a little farther north than New York, Madrid, and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand. Anywhere within this radius, it might crash down to Earth, he said.
China's First Out-of-Control Falling Rocket Stage Not the First Time
In May 2020, China unveiled the Long March 5b for the first time to test it by launching a spacecraft concept into orbit. Six days after launch, the center stage of the rocket also dropped down to Earth uncontrollably. According to the US Space Force's 18th Space Control Squadron, Earth's atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean reentered. Still, The Verge suggested that pieces of the rocket fell on Côte d'Ivoire.
Space Policy Online said former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine chastised China for the incident, describing it as "very dangerous." Then, just before succumbing to Earth's gravity, the rocket stage flew over Los Angeles and New York City.
Jones said the Long March 5b is planned especially for launching space station modules. China intends to launch 11 rockets from its current space station before the end of 2022. However, it's unclear how China's space authorities can dispose of the rocket bodies from the following ten launches.
McDowell told Jones the Long March 5B core stage is seven times larger than the Falcon 9 second stage. SpaceX's spacecraft made headlines a few weeks ago when it reentered above Seattle and dropped two pressure tanks on Washington.
A pressure tank from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket crashed on a Washington field, leaving a 4-inch crater. According to local officials, no one was injured in the incident.
In 2018, an early version of the space station China was developing landed uncontrollably on Earth. It landed in the unpopulated South Pacific Ocean.
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