New estimates from Yale University and the Commonwealth Fund researchers recently showed that COVID-19 vaccines could save hundreds of thousands of lives and preempted over a million hospital admissions in the United States.
According to a CNN report through MSN.com, the researchers compared real trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths against a modeled trail of what such trends would have been if vaccinations had not been available.
By the end of last month, the study authors estimated that there would have been roughly 279,000 additional fatalities because of COVID-19, roughly 46 percent more than there were, and as many as 1.25 million additional hospital admissions if vaccinations were unavailable.
Furthermore, if vaccinations had developed at half the pace they did, roughly 121,000 more people may have died, and over 450,000 more would have been admitted to the hospital.
Vaccination Initiatives
According to a similar ABC7 report, during a Thursday briefing, Jeffrey Zients, White House COVID-19 response director, called the new study "a powerful reminder about" what is at stake in their vaccination initiatives.
He added this is further evidence that the whole-of-government strategy is working and has preempted substantial further tragedy and disruption of the lives and livelihoods of Americans.
The model used by the researchers considered factors that include the new variants' prevalence and communicability, efficacy rates of vaccines, mobility patterns that drive contacts, and age-particular risks of severe health results because of COVID-19.
Most of the additional deaths would have taken place due to a rise and spread of the more communicable Alpha variant, the study authors said.
Impact of COVID-19 Vaccines on New Variants
The Alpha variant, also called B.1.1.7 variant, and originally detected in the United Kingdom, became the dominant strain in the spring in the US.
Minus vaccinations, News Channel Nebraska reported, the study investigators approximated that there could have been a spring outpouring with almost 4,500 deaths every day, even more than the peak in January of approximately 3,400 deaths.
In addition, the researchers compared their model with actual trends between mid-December last year, when vaccinations started in the US, and the end of June this year.
Nonetheless, the model was duplicated through the use of data back through October last year to balance lower occurrence rates with those from winter outpouring.
Almost 48 percent of the US population, roughly 156 million people, have been fully vaccinated. Data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed, down roughly 76 percent from the peak pace of almost 1.8 million people each day in the middle of April.
COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy
In May this year, a CDC study added to the growing body of real-world evidence, beyond the clinical trial background, showing that COVID-19 vaccines, specifically the mRNA vaccines that the Food and Drug Administration authorized, shield health care personnel against the virus.
Essentially, mRNA vaccines, including Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, lessened the risk of getting ill with COVID-19 by 94 percent among health care personnel.
This analysis, carried out in a different research network with a larger sample size from across a larger geographic area compared to the clinical tests, independently verified US COVID-19 vaccine efficacy findings among health care personnel that were initially reported in March.
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