Elon Musk Won't Probably Be Liable If SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Crashing Into Moon Would Leave Crater

After nearly seven years of speeding through space, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on a collision path with the Moon might create a crater on the Moon's far side. Will Elon Musk be held responsible if space trash lands on the Moon?

The rocket was launched from Florida in February 2015 as part of an interplanetary mission to deliver a million-mile journey for a space weather satellite.

(Photo : CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying the Inspiration4 crew launches from Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida on September 15, 2021.

SpaceX Falcon 9 To Hit Moon

SpaceX Falcon 9's second stage became derelict after completing a long fire of its engines and delivering the NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory on its path to the Lagrange point - a gravity-neutral position four times further than the Moon and in direct line with the sun.

It was high enough at this point that it didn't have enough fuel to return to Earth's atmosphere. Still, meteorologist Eric Berger said in a recent Ars Technica report that the rocket also lacked the energy to escape the gravity of the Earth-Moon system.

According to space astronomers, the rocket, which weighs around four metric tons of "space debris," is expected to collide with the Moon in a few weeks at a speed of roughly 2.58 kilometers per second.

Bill Gray, who builds software to track near-Earth objects, asteroids, minor planets, and comets, said in a blog that the Falcon 9's upper stage would most likely impact the far side of the Moon, near the equator, on March 4.

The object "performed a near lunar flyby on January 5", according to the data analyst, but will have "a definite influence on March 4."

Gray is aware of the first accidental incident of space trash colliding with the Moon.

Due to the unexpected impact of sunlight "pressing" on the rocket and "ambiguity in estimating rotation periods," which may slightly modify its orbit, the exact area the rocket will hit remains unknown.

These unpredictability impacts are minor. They will, however, accrue between now and March 4, according to Gray. He went on to say that further observations were required to fine-tune the exact timing and position of the hit.

When asked if the collision will be visible from Earth, Gray believes it will very likely go unnoticed.

Meanwhile, Harvard University astronomer Jonathan McDowell said in a tweet that the impact was due on March 4 but was "not a major issue."

For those asking: yes, an old Falcon 9 second stage left in high orbit in 2015 is going to hit the moon on March 4. It's interesting, but not a big deal.
— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) January 25, 2022

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SpaceX Falcon 9 Crash May Create a Crater on Moon

According to IFLScience, the crash will create a 19-meter-wide crater. It's a potential that has sparked anger on social media from those who are outraged that human irresponsibility would permanently alter the Moon's appearance.

It is unquestionably more ecologically friendly for a dead rocket to wind up on the Moon than it is for metal oxide particles to be spread throughout Earth's upper atmosphere during a re-entry burn up. Because the Moon lacks an atmosphere to protect it from space debris, it is constantly acquiring naturally occurring impact craters.

NASA said the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, which has been orbiting the Moon since 2009, will not be able to see the impact.

In a CNN report, NASA's Senior Science Communications Officer Karen Fox said that the team is evaluating if the mission crew can see any changes to the lunar environment linked with the impact and later identify the crater caused by the impact.

This one-of-a-kind case, according to Fox, gives a fascinating study opportunity. The mission can utilize its cameras to pinpoint the impact site after the hit by comparing earlier photographs to those collected after the impact. The search for the impact crater will be difficult and time-consuming, maybe taking weeks or months.

Will Elon Musk Be Held Legally Liable?

Attorney Steven Kaufman, who co-heads the satellite practice at the law firm Hogan Lovells, told Forbes that Elon Musk might not be legally accountable for SpaceX's space debris striking the Moon - practically speaking.

That's because, while some international treaties and rules address culpability for damages caused by spacecraft events, any legal action must be based on real harm. Nobody owns the Moon, according to Kaufman.

However, if SpaceX's rocket collides with China's lunar rover, a claim to the Moon may arise. In the same Forbes report, Attorney Scot Anderson of Hogan Lovells also said that two international accords would come into play in such a situation. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty and the 1972 Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects are the two agreements in question.

These accords spell out the steps that countries must take in order to bring a case of this nature. China would submit a lawsuit against the United States for damages to its rover. However, it is still unclear how this might happen.

This is because these accords have never had a single liability claim made against them. In 1978, the Soviet satellite Kosmos 954 disintegrated into the atmosphere, spilling radioactive material across northern Canada. The Canadian government demanded compensation from the Soviet Union, and the two countries finally agreed on a sum of 3 million Canadian dollars (about $10 million in US dollars in 2022).

While a lawsuit based on SpaceX's rocket is unlikely, Kaufman believes it won't be long before the rules controlling these sorts of claims and damages become more relevant. Because there are more and more satellites entering orbit, and as they become less functional, the likelihood of space debris propagation increases. As a result, governments have begun to take action against debris, with regulatory bodies mandating space corporations to adopt debris mitigation strategies.