A large piece of space junk is heading straight towards the moon. Some believe it's Chinese, while others think it's American. Neither party is ready to admit ownership of the thing.
The item isn't a danger to anything important on its own. Experts agree, however, that not understanding where this renegade trash comes from is a symptom of our more untidy operations in space, as well as a looming future concern.
After asteroid tracker Bill Gray spotted the crash trajectory in January, the remaining rocket was initially supposed to belong to SpaceX.
But, a month later, he clarified in his Project Pluto blog that the mystery object was not a Falcon rocket upper stage of NASA's deep space climate observatory mission in 2015.
Gray speculated that it was the third stage of a Chinese rocket that orbited the moon and returned in 2014, but Chinese ministry officials maintained the top stage had re-entered the atmosphere and burnt up.
Whatever it is, experts predict per KTLA the three-ton space junk will rip a crater 33 feet to 66 feet (10 to 20 meters) through the barren, pockmarked surface and send lunar dust flying hundreds of miles.
Tracking low-orbiting space debris is quite simple. Objects that shoot further into space are unlikely to collide with anything, and these far-flung bits are quickly forgotten, save for a few spectators who love playing celestial detective on the side.
Chinese Space Rocket to Slam Into the Moon
The impact on March 4 will be comparable to that seen during NASA's Apollo mission when space agencies deliberately directed the third stages of massive Saturn V rockets into the moon.
According to Jeffrey Plescia, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, the moon-smacking projectile is more or less a tin can in both circumstances.
"The result is that a lot of the energy goes into crushing the projectile rather than excavating the crater," Plescia told Inside Outer Space (via Space.com).
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Plescia stated that the Saturn V third stages produced craters that are shallower than natural craters and have an uneven form, which he attributes to the low impact angle.
He stated that knowing the projectile specifications is always useful for better understanding the cratering process.
Plescia explained that since LRO's strong camera system previously collected pre-impact photos, crater depth and other impact event characteristics will be more accurately recorded for the March 4 crash.
The only thing that isn't definite right now is the booster's orientation in relation to the trajectory.
It's spinning, but Plescia isn't sure if it's just whirling in rotisserie mode or tumbling. He hopes the Chinese are aware of this and are willing to cooperate.
How to See Space Junk Crashing Moon
Those who want to see the space junk crashing the lunar surface won't see blast with backyard telescopes since it will hit a side of the moon that isn't visible from Earth.
Instead, scientists plan to use robotic devices orbiting the moon to watch the fall. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) of NASA and India's Chandrayaan 2 spacecraft might be positioned to monitor the impact location and, ideally, the crash itself.
Although the moon's surface is severely cratered, Cincinnati.com said seeing anything impact the moon is exceedingly unusual.
A recent examination of LRO pictures obtained over time found more than 200 new impact craters, despite very few impacts observed from Earth.
The Lunar Impact Monitoring program looks for flashes of light in gloomy areas of the moon, which are telltale signals of an impacting meteorite traveling at 45,000-160,000 miles per hour. What effect will this enigmatic item have on the moon? How big will the crater be? NASA will send updates on March 4.
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