The news of the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet is largely due to a feedback loop. As more and more sea ice melts, darker waters are exposed. This newly exposed water absorbs more sun rays, further accelerating the Arctic's melting. Unfortunately, there is something worse at play.
Warming of the Arctic
Arctic amplification is the underlying warming process that is undeniably at play. However, something more catastrophic is threatening the ecosystem. Researchers estimate using torrent temperature data that the region is warming more than four times faster than the rest of the planet, which will have dire consequences for the rest of the Earth.
A recent study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970-2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models." suggests that the Arctic hasn't been warming at a consistent, predictable rate.
Petr Chylek, the study's lead author and a research scientist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, explains that changes have not been smooth, contrary to earlier belief. The changes occur in two discrete steps: the first in 1985 and another around 2000.
He adds that after the last increase in 2000, Arctic amplification is roughly 4.5 times as fast as before, presenting a significant change.
This means that the scientific community and policymakers have been using too slow figures. Climate scientist Lili Hahn explains that numerous papers have cited this figure of two times greater warming in the arctic for a long time. This is why it is nice to have an update using the most recent observations finally.
Spiking of Arctic Temperatures
Although the question of what caused the sudden Arctic temperature spikes isn't clear yet, experts theorize that the first spike in the 1980s may have been due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, Chylek explains. The second spike, during the turn of the century, may have been caused by more variability in the climate, such as changing oceanic currents, reports Wired.
Scientists have had a good handle on the causes of the overall Arctic warming. Sea ice has a significantly high albedo, its ability to reflect the sun's radiation. However, the underlying seawater has a low albedo, which absorbs energy. Hence, as the ice melts, the Arctic's albedo decreases, raising temperatures and, in turn, melting more ice in a vicious cycle.
One major concern for experts is the potential tipping point of the climate system, which will kick off a rapid change. If the Arctic warms enough, melting in Greenland may accelerate.
Michael Previdi, a climate scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University who wasn't involved in the study, says that he doesn't precisely know if the tipping point exists or doesn't and what level of warming would trigger rapid changes. But, he believes that a larger amplification factor will increase the chances of passing one of the tipping points of our climate.
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