Experts Explain the Likelihood of Three Massive Earthquakes in Mexico Hitting on the Same Day in Three Different Years

On September 19, 2022, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit Mexico's western coast on the same day that two previous earthquakes also hit the country in 2017 and 1985. Science Times previously reported that the recent earthquake resulted in one death, the 2017 incident recorded 216 deaths, and the 1985 disaster killed at least 10,000 people.

The three earthquakes all happened on the same day, September 19, but in three different years. Due to this, many thought that the date could be a bad omen for disasters. But how often does this kind of natural phenomenon happen? Here's what experts say.

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Members of the Mexican Army check cracks in the streets after an earthquake caused by a geological fault in Ciudad Guzman, Jalisco state, Mexico, on June 22, 2022.

Coincidence or Not?

Experiencing massive earthquakes on the same dates but in different years is indeed a mystery that people are curious about. Is it merely a coincidence or is there another explanation to it?

According to Newsweek, some observers pointed out the similarities between the three earthquakes that hit Mexico before September 19 in 1985, 2017, and 2022, while others say that the date is a cursed day for the country.

Ernesto Lanzetta, a business owner in the Cuauhtémoc borough of Mexico City, believes that there is something about September 19 that should be feared given the three earthquakes that happened on that date and caused significant damage to the city and have taken thousands of lives in almost the same time in the early afternoon.

An expert told Bloomberg that there is only a 0.00075% chance of three earthquakes happening on the same date but in different years. Meanwhile, others have also speculated that it is only as little as 0.00000024%

Experts said these natural disasters do not justify any superstitious or paranormal explanations. Massive earthquakes are relatively common in Mexico because it is in an extremely seismically active region, wherein the country is regularly affected by seismic activities due to the movement of the North American plate against the Cocos and Pacific plates.

In the last decade alone, Mexico saw eight earthquakes with a magnitude over 7.0 that occurred in February, March, April, and June. Meanwhile, only eight earthquakes happened in the month of September since 1900.

Accurately predicting earthquakes is still beyond the reach of experts despite significant advances in seismology. Even the US Geological Survey admitted that not even they or any scientists are able to predict major earthquakes. USGS can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur in a given number of years.

Therefore, Newsweek concludes that the three earthquakes that hit Mexico on September 19 in three different years are a simple coincidence. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that it is more than that.

Forecasting Seismic Activity

Scientists estimate that several millions of seismic activities happen each year globally although only 200,000 earthquakes are recorded, per The Geological Society. Many of these activities are undetected because of how small their magnitude is or they happen in areas not closely monitored.

Predicting and forecasting earthquakes are interesting topics for geological research. Geoscientists can identify particular areas at risk and make forecasts about how likely earthquakes will happen over a specific period. They do so based on data gathered through global seismic monitoring networks, monitoring high-risk areas, geological fieldwork, and historical records.

Forecasts help scientists understand how earthquakes grow and they use models to test their observation to develop long-term forecasts of up to years or decades, which are more reliable than short-term forecasts.

It is currently impossible to make deterministic predictions of when and where an earthquake will happen. Several factors must be satisfied for this to be possible. First, they should identify a diagnostic precursor, like a pattern of seismic activity or changes in the physical, chemical, or biological properties of Earth. So far, scientists have been unsuccessful, and predicting earthquakes might just be impossible even in the foreseeable future.