Coral Gables, Florida- Scientists from the University of Miami determine that a swathe of cooling water throughout the subpolar zone is unconnected to a slowing in ocean circulation.
Based on a recent study from scientists at the University of Miami's (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, the sequence of changes in temperature in the world's oceans may not be consistent with signs of an upcoming sudden and unexpected climate change occurrence, as portrayed in the film "The Day After Tomorrow."
The UM Rosenstiel School research team used a cutting-edge climate model to investigate a sequence of temperature change in a portion of the ocean near the North Atlantic poles characterized as a 'warming hole' which has been decreasing during the past centuries.
'Warming Hole' and Abrupt Climate Change
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports energy towards the North Atlantic, is likely to be the source of this decrease, as per experts. Nevertheless, their research indicates that the warming gap over the last century is probably related to a slowing of the AMOC. Rather, the warming hole is the result of human-caused shifts in the atmosphere, as per Chengfei He, a postdoctoral researcher from the Rosenstiel School's Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
The warming hole seems to constitute a modern-day AMOC imprint. Its presence shows that the AMOC is not steady, as stated by Amy Clement, a co-author of the paper and a professor in the Rosenstiel School's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. The warming hole occurs as the atmospheric westerlies migrate northward, enhancing the local wind across the subpolar North Atlantic.
Scientists believe that this cooling trend is largely offset by warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and the damping impact on sea surface temperatures. The scientists used a climate model, which is a virtual Earth that can replicate historical climatic changes and anticipate future climate change.
Chengfei He, along with his co-authors, conducted the simulation with a stationary ocean to investigate how and why the North Atlantic climate responds to shifts in the atmosphere produced by greenhouse gas as well as aerosol emissions. Since the ocean seems to have no movement, every movement in ocean surface temperatures is dictated by the environmental conditions above.
During the past century, the global surface temperature has been increasing, except a swath of region in the subpolar North Atlantic that is overall cooling, referred as “warming hole”
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Temperature Shifts Caused by SST
Their findings indicate that the warming hole will not cause a catastrophic climate change event that is dangerous to humanity, as represented in Hollywood blockbusters. Geological evidence, such as the Greenland ice cores, has revealed that the bulk of abrupt climatic shifts in the history of the earth occurred caused by a slowing of the Earth's rotation.
The cooling trend is caused by stronger surface westerly winds, which transfer heat from such ocean's surface through increasing air-sea temperature differential as well as surface wind intensity. Such a cooling tendency is offset in part by heating caused by rising greenhouse gas levels and the dampening impact of sea surface temperature. Researchers also explain that wind-driven ocean activities can improve the temperature. The explanation fits with variations within the North Atlantic atmosphere and the ocean.
This research enhances the capacity to ascribe patterns of variation in the oceans to various variables, hence the ability to predict how the oceans will shift in the future. NOAA Research, as well as the National Science Foundation, financed the study, which was published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.
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