Deadly Rockets, Spacecraft Falling From the Sky Have 10% Chance of Killing Someone Within the Next Decade

Last week, a NASA satellite that was already dead returned to Earth and there were fears that there was a minimal chance of it causing harm and even killing someone. Fortunately, AP News reported that it crashed harmlessly into the Sahara Desert. However, this incident re-emphasized the growing danger of space debris in humans' daily existence.

Experts have even cautioned that, in the next ten years, there is a possibility of a person being hit and fatally injured by a falling spacecraft or rocket booster due to the colossal magnitude of the problem.

1 in 10 Chance of Getting Hit By Falling Space Debris

According to a report by New Scientist, the increasing number of rocket launches, which often discard parts in space that then fall back towards Earth, pose an escalating risk to people and property.

In the past 30 years, an estimated 1,000 rocket bodies have re-entered the atmosphere uncontrollably, with some falling onto land and potentially causing casualties. Action is needed to limit this risk as the number of rocket launches continues to increase, reaching a record 135 launches in 2021.

In 2022, researchers have calculated that there is about 10% chance of one or more casualties being caused by space debris falling to Earth over the next decade. This risk is larger in low-income countries near the equator, where human densities are higher and debris falls more frequently.

Rocket companies have been urged to keep leftover fuel to ensure safe re-entries into uninhabited ocean regions. Modern rockets can avoid uncontrolled re-entries. Commentators have stated that the second stages of many rockets are regularly left to drift in space rather than being brought back to Earth.

Legal action could be taken under the United Nations' Liability Convention of 1972 in the event of debris from a rocket causing damage or casualties on Earth. Only one such case has previously been seen.

Biggest Rockets, Satellites, and Spacecraft That Could Fall to Earth

According to the European Space Agency (ESA), about 10,800 tons of space junk are now circling the Earth. With this much debris from rockets, satellites, and spacecraft floating in space, MailOnline has taken a look at the biggest among them that the world should watch out for. Here are some of them:

• Russian Rockets- There are several spent Russian rocket boosters, including 18 upper stages of a Russian Zenit rocket, currently orbiting 520 miles above Earth and posing a potential collision risk to other objects in space, leading to increasing numbers of start-ups trying to come up with new ways to safely remove them.
• China's Long March 5B Rockets- These rockets are causing concern due to their large size and risky design. There have been calls for them to disintegrate into smaller pieces upon re-entry, as is the international norm.
• Hubble Space Telescope- When Hubble's mission eventually ends, its lack of onboard propulsion and considerable weight means safely disposing of it will be a problem, as it could potentially cause damage to aircraft and buildings.
• Envisat- The European Earth-observing satellite weighing around eight tons and which has been dead since 2012, has earned its place among the potentially deadly space junk items because of its sheer size and can wreak havoc by damaging aircraft in the air or hitting humans and buildings on the ground, while the Hubble could crash back down in a few years.
• Spy Satellites From the Cold War- Old Russian spy and communication satellites, carried on the SL-8 rocket between the 1960s and 1990s, along with their spent stages, are posing a risk of falling back to Earth.
• International Space Station- The ISS will eventually be retired by 2031 and will be gradually brought down to a controlled crash in the South Pacific Ocean Uninhabited Area.

Check out more news and information on Space Junk in Science Times.