Solar Maximum Could Be Nearing as Series of Solar Storms Lead Earth's Thermosphere To Reach Peak Temperatures in 20 Years

A series of geomagnetic storms has been taking place, which has led to a spike in atmospheric temperature on the Earth. This posits that the solar maximum could be nearing.

Peak Temperatures of Earth's Thermosphere

After the Earth's thermosphere was able to soak up energy brought about by geomagnetic storms that bashed the planet, the thermosphere was able to reach its peak temperature in the last two decades, Live Science explains. This temperature peak in the thermosphere could go higher in the coming year as solar activity boosts as well. Experts warn that this could affect satellites that orbit around Earth.

According to the Greek Reporter, the thermosphere of the Earth starts at roughly 53 miles above the surface of the planet. It lies on top of the Earth's mesosphere, NASA adds. The thermosphere extends until it reaches the exosphere's bottom, which starts roughly 372 miles above the surface.

For over two decades, NASA has been gauging the temperature of the thermosphere through infrared radiation that nitric oxide and carbon dioxide molecules emit. Experts converted data that was taken from the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite of NASA to the Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI). This TCI is measured in terawatt units.

The value of TCI reached 0.24 TW on March 10. The last time for this index to reach such levels was on December 28, 2003.

Per Live Science, the spike in temperatures was due to three geomagnetic storms that took place in January and February. These storms could have been triggered by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or solar wind, which are both expelled by the Sun.

Live Science adds that since this temperature spike, at least two other geomagnetic storms have bashed the Earth. One took place on March 24, and another happened on April 24. Martin Mlynczak, the TIMED mission's lead researcher, explains that the TCI levels in these storms have stayed high but have not gone beyond the identified peak.

Solar Maximum

Such geomagnetic storms could get more intense and frequent when the Sun reaches its solar maximum, which is a part of the Sun's 11-year cycle when the Sun is at its peak solar activity. During this phase, the Sun is also covered in sunspots and plasma loops that emit solar wind and CMEs.

The thermosphere of the Earth also abides by a cycle that takes around 11 years. Government specialists from NOAA and NASA estimated that the Sun's next solar maximum will hit in 2025. This means that the trend could continue in the coming years.

Mlynczak explains that thermosphere changes could make it difficult for satellites that are in low-Earth orbit and that are situated at the upper boundary of the thermosphere. When the thermosphere warms up, it expands. This leads to higher aerodynamic drag on space debris and satellites. The heightened drag could bring satellites nearer to the Earth, which, in turn, could make satellites fall out of orbit or crash with each other.

Operators of satellites may be able to bypass such issues by placing their craft in a higher orbit when necessary. However, space weather's unpredictability makes it difficult to know when maneuvers are necessary until it is typically too late.

The solar maximum could also happen sooner than thought, according to a recent study. The research posits that this solar maximum could hit by late 2023 and become even stronger than thought. In such a case, satellite disaster risk dramatically increases.

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