Space Weather Forecasting: How Scientists Predict Solar Storms

Space weather forecasting is the study of activity on the Sun's surface. It is necessary because solar activities can somehow affect us.

Space Weather Forecasting: Technology to Predict Solar Storms

According to the National Weather Service, "space weather" describes fluctuations in the space environment between the Sun and Earth (and throughout the solar system). Coronal mass ejections, a space weather phenomenon, begin as eruptions from the Sun's surface.

The most active part of the 11-year solar cycle is when these events are most frequent, happening on average twice daily. Most of these outbursts don't have Earth as their target. Earth-directed ones can create beautiful aurora, but they can also disrupt vital Earth infrastructure.

Our country's official source for space weather forecasts is NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Similar to how other National Weather Service offices anticipate weather on Earth, they also predict solar storms.

NASA and other organizations run various instruments to monitor the Sun and space weather. Coronal mass ejections are monitored by NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Other satellites track the Sun and look for solar storms and variations in the solar wind, such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) R-series.

NOAA's GOES-17 and GOES-18 satellites provide beautiful views of the Sun, which are 22,000 miles from Earth. The vast range of view of the satellites unveils features of the Sun that have never been observed by active spacecraft.

The space weather analysis begins with the Sun and then extends into the region between planets. The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite of NOAA is located between the Earth and the Sun, approximately a million kilometers from the Earth.

It detects the solar wind to forecast the intensity and timing of geomagnetic storms on Earth.

On the solar wind data we receive from DSCOVR, as well as on the results of computer models and ground magnetometer readings, SWPC forecasters base some warnings. Many numerical space weather forecast models require solar wind data from DSCOVR.

The coronagraph on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) provides photos of CMEs and enables experts to analyze the eruption as it hurdles across space. These readings feed a computer model that aids in geomagnetic storm timing prediction.

Launched in 1995, SOHO is an aging research spacecraft. NOAA is preparing to launch the Space Weather Follow-On L1, which will replace SOHO and DSCOVR. The new spacecraft will carry a functional coronagraph, which is a significant advancement for space weather prediction.

Space Weather Scales convey the severity of space weather storms, just like categories are used to categorize hurricanes. Forecasters watch for solar flares and coronal mass ejections on the Sun to anticipate these storms.

Massive eruptions on the Sun's surface are known as solar flares. They frequently appear close to sunspots and emit a broad spectrum of photons, including X-rays, visible light, and ultraviolet light—coronal mass ejections (CME) primarily cause the largest solar storms.

A CME is a massive bubble of plasma that the Sun emits into space; it is made up of a magnetic field that holds billions of tons of fast-moving solar particles together. A CME's velocity can be more incredible than 5 million miles per hour!

Solar Storm Watches, Warnings, and Alerts

To help government partners, public utilities, and commercial interests lessen the effects of space weather, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SPWC) publishes warnings and alerts. The NOAA Space Weather Scales report three categories of solar effects.

These scales convey the following information about the present and future space weather conditions and potential repercussions on people and systems.

Watch: A watch is issued when a potentially dangerous space weather event has become much more likely, but its timing or appearance is still unknown. It is meant to give sufficient warning to allow people who need to start making plans to do so. A Watch's primary function is to provide early notice of potential space weather activities with a lead time of hours to days. One Watch can become another Watch of a higher level.

Warning: When a significant space weather event is happening, imminent, or likely, a Warning is sent. It is a short-term, very confident prediction of impending activity. A Warning serves to notify users of approaching space weather events with a few minutes to many hours of lead time. If the space weather is anticipated to change sufficiently to justify it, a Warning may be elevated to a higher Warning.

Alerts show that a certain threshold has been crossed or that a space weather event has already begun for the observed conditions emphasized by the warnings.

Check out more news and information on Solar Flares in Science Times.