Loch Ness Monster Probability: Chances of Mythical Legend Nessie’s Existence ‘Very Low,’ Data Scientist Claims

Many are hopeful to see the Loch Ness monster in the flesh. Many have searched for Nessie for decades, but the mythical legend remains elusive. According to a data scientist, the probability of the Loch Ness monster's existence is "very low."

Loch Ness Monster Nessie's Probability

Last month, the most extensive search for Nessie in 50 years happened, but they found no definite proof of the monster's existence. Boats and drones were both present. Spotters were on the ground, and an underwater hydrophone was listening for strange sounds. People flocked to Scotland for any indication of the fabled creature.

Data scientist Floe Foxon emailed the event's organizers and wished them luck in their hunt for the legendary monster. He believed it would be fun, and though he didn't join the search, he tried to examine the famous folklore in his way - using statistics.

Foxon published a study on the probability of finding a giant eel in the loch in July. He concluded that the odds were essentially zero. According to Foxon in JMIRx Bio, the chances of discovering an eel that is one meter long are extremely slim- about 1 in 50,000. However, the likelihood drastically decreases once you get beyond that into the area of monster-sized eels.

Using a statistical method, his most recent research examines eyewitness reports of sightings of the long-extinct New Zealand moa (Dinornithiformes). Even though scientists believe the ostrich-like bird died off hundreds of years ago, moa sightings have been documented as late as the 1990s. Foxon calculated that in an analysis that considered the validity of 97 distinct moa sightings.

"I'm greatly disappointed by all of my findings," Foxon laughed. "I really wish that there was a giant eel in Loch Ness or a hairy, apelike monster in North America's woods or moa living in modern times," he said before concluding that "there seems to be a very, very low probability."

Foxon doesn't consider himself a myth buster or debunker. According to him, one should approach the subject with an open mind and let the data influence the decision-making because "When you learn data science, you find that it can be applied to more or less anything."

Loch Ness Monster Sightings

Although Foxon's study revealed little to no chance that Nessie exists, there have been numerous reports of alleged sightings. Steve Valentine claimed that he saw a glimpse of the legendary monster and captured it on his phone. They were returning to the dock, and he saw a visible figure on the water's surface 200 meters away when they were approaching Urquhart Castle. He claimed to see the back of Nessie's head and body's hump.

A photographer also claimed to see Nessie during a vacation in August 2018. She allegedly saw the two-meter beast but kept it to herself for fear of being laughed at publicly. According to Chie Kelly, the mythical figure looked like a serpent moving in the water. She saw a head, but it never resurfaced.

Kelly decided to share the story after learning about the most extensive search for Nessie, with hundreds of volunteers joining the event. She shared the snaps with Nessie hunter Steve Feltham, who claimed that he hadn't seen more thrilling surface images of Nessie than Kelly's shots.

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