Carbon emissions across the globe could go over 1% and reach record-high levels in 2023. This is according to a climate scientist behind initial research done regarding the phenomenon.
Global Carbon Emissions
Scientists think that carbon pollution levels need to be cut by nearly half during this decade for global targets on limiting global warming and preventing disastrous climate impacts.
According to Glen Peters, the research director from CICERO climate research institute in Norway, global carbon emissions should plummet by roughly 5% this year. However, according to his research, these levels have continued to go up. Current predictions for this year show that carbon emissions could go up by 0.5% to 1%. Peters notes how unlikely it is for emissions to go down in 2023.
Initial figures reveal how difficult it is to cut down emissions fast enough to beat the goal of the Paris Agreement that involves capping levels of global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than levels during the pre-industrial period. Heating that exceeds this threshold comes with risks of triggering dangerous points of tripping in the entire climate system.
Peters explains that every year rising emissions makes it more difficult to achieve pathways that align with Paris.
The analysis is set to be released in December, as global leaders will be meeting for the UN climate talks that will be dominated by tussling discussions regarding fossil fuels, which is the main culprit behind carbon emissions.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), during early 2023, the global demand for coal, gas, and oil could peak during this decade because of the great growth of technologies for cleaner energies and electric cars. However, a warning has also been issued regarding the negative effects of higher fossil fuel investments and remarkably high emissions during the post-pandemic rebound of the economy and the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion on Ukraine.
Peters adds that clean energy should start displacing fossil fuel demand, which, he notes, is something that has not been taking place in a meaningful manner yet.
Higher Peaks
Back in 2015, scientists were hopeful that carbon emissions could be peaking. When the pandemic was ongoing, there were hopes that the year 2019 could serve as a turning point.
However, the world is seeing yet another peak. Peters explains that a new peak was seen in 2022 and another higher peak is expected this year.
Peters notes his concern that only half of the job is being done, referring to the growth of clean energy. The other half, transitioning away from the usage of fossil fuels, is something that is yet to be done.
This year's Global Carbon Budget report will be released in December and will reveal carbon emissions from every source. The calculations will be based on the quarterly and monthly reports done by the IEA.
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