Between 2023 and 2024, the "aurora season" is giving a spectacular display of aurora borealis in the north and aurora australis in the south, captivating humans for centuries with their enchanting displays.
These phenomena occur when solar particles collide with Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, up to 40 million mph, and are guided toward the poles by Earth's magnetic field, producing mesmerizing curtains of light in the sky. As scientists expect it to continue in the next few years, it is an opportune time to plan northern lights adventure and witness this stunning natural spectacle.
Aurora Displays Dependent on Solar Activity
The stunning displays of auroras in the night sky are intricately linked to the solar activity. As it increases, so does the likelihood of witnessing vibrant aurora shows. The years ahead promise to be a treat for aurora enthusiasts, and here's why.
The Sun has been steadily gaining strength since its last solar minimum in December 2019, marking the beginning of what we now call the "aurora season." This season is poised to be particularly remarkable as the sun approaches its highest level of activity, known as the solar maximum, a pivotal phase in its approximately 11-year solar cycle.
The solar cycle is a period of solar activity driven by the sun's magnetic field and is characterized by the frequency and intensity of sunspots visible on the sun's surface.
Recent predictions suggest that the solar maximum, a phase of heightened solar activity, may occur earlier than initially estimated, possibly by the end of 2023. These projections are based on historical sunspot data, advanced statistical models, and an understanding of the solar dynamo, which governs the sun's magnetic field and drives the solar cycle.
While the exact timing remains uncertain, scientists anticipate the solar maximum to take place between late 2023 and early 2025 during the current solar cycle, known as cycle 25.
The NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) also recently adjusted its forecast, suggesting that the solar maximum could occur between January and October 2024.
The current solar cycle is classified as "moderate," signifying its intensity falls between that of the previous Solar Cycle 24 and earlier cycles like 23 and 22. This classification is exciting for aurora enthusiasts, as it suggests that the next four to five years will provide highly favorable conditions for observing these captivating natural displays.
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Two Factors for the Long Aurora Season
The extended "aurora season" results from two primary factors. Firstly, "moderate" solar cycles, as opposed to "strong" cycles, typically exhibit a prolonged and flatter solar maximum lasting around two years. This extended period may include multiple "sub-peaks" of heightened solar activity.
Secondly, the type and location of active regions on the sun vary over the course of the solar cycle. Following the solar maximum, active regions tend to emerge closer to the solar equator, aligning them with Earth's orbital plane.
In the declining phase of the solar cycle, an increased presence of giant and magnetically complex sunspots occurs, which are more susceptible to generating potent solar flares that can induce geomagnetic storms and vivid auroral displays on Earth.
The most stunning auroral displays may persist for several years after the solar maximum, potentially until 2028 in the current cycle. Now is an opportune moment to plan your aurora-watching expedition as the aurora forecast appears promising in the coming years.
Moreover, auroras could remain visible throughout the entire solar cycle ensured by the presence of weak to moderate coronal mass ejections linked to filament eruptions, sustaining the underlying geomagnetic activity that gives rise to these enchanting natural phenomena.
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