The Aurora Borealis, or northern lights, may illuminate North American states once again due to increased solar magnetic activity. A predicted geomagnetic storm last Sunday produced stunning auroras across North America and Europe, visible as far south as Greece and Italy.
Although the upcoming storm is expected to be less intense than the previous G3-class event, it could still generate G2 activity, potentially making the aurora visible from New York to Washington. Additionally, NASA may conduct a second scientific rocket launch in Alaska.
High Solar Activity This Weekend
The expectation of a visible aurora over the Northern United States arises from space weather models independently generated by both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA.
The Space Weather Prediction Center, part of NOAA, forecasts a G1 magnetic storm from 15:00 UTC on Saturday, transitioning to a G2 magnetic storm from 18:00 to 03:00 UTC. This forecast suggests the potential for aurora sightings in North American states during the nighttime hours.
The phenomenon is triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME), a burst of magnetic fields and charged particles from the Sun, hurtling toward Earth at speeds of up to 1,900 miles per second. These CMEs supercharge the solar wind, a stream of charged particles emanating from the Sun.
As these particles collide with Earth's magnetic field, they accelerate along its magnetic field lines, creating the characteristic green and red oval-shaped auroras around the polar regions.
Typically, auroras are visible around 65°-70° north latitude, primarily above the Arctic Circle, encompassing areas like Alaska, northern Canada, Iceland, Lapland, and northern Russia. However, during periods of heightened solar activity, such as the current solar cycle nearing its peak, the auroral oval expands, making auroras visible at lower latitudes.
The current solar cycle, marked by increased solar activity, is approaching its peak, referred to as solar maximum, anticipated to occur between January and October 2024, according to recent predictions by the SWPC.
This heightened solar activity contributes to the broader visibility of auroras and enhances the chances of observing these celestial displays in North American skies during the specified timeframe.
Solar Cycle 25 Surpasses Predictions: How Do Scientists Predict Solar Activity
Counting sunspots is a foundational method for predicting solar activity during a cycle, as it has a rich 400-year history and is one of the oldest measurements. Astronomers in the 1800s established the 11-year cycle of sunspots, which predates the invention of the telescope, with sunspots being visible to the naked eye.
The current sunspot count, trackable through NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, has already surpassed the previous Solar Cycle 24. Monthly updates from the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) adjust forecasts based on new sunspot data. The latest forecast raises the estimated peak solar activity to around 152 sunspots during solar maximum, up from the initial prediction of 115.
Solar Cycle 25's increased sunspots and ongoing activity offer more opportunities for Southern Lights. Despite being stronger than expected, its impact on society, especially technology like GPS, remains significant, emphasizing the potential consequences of solar storms.
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