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California is not only prone to earthquakes, but there are also chances that the state will be subjected to intense flooding. Experts claimed that aside from the expected major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, a deadly flood could happen in the coming decades.
ARkstorm: California's Other Big One
A devastating weather system is pounding California, dumping over a foot of rain in some places. However, a biblical storm is coming that will reduce this disastrous flooding to the level of a drizzle.
Scientists have studied a fictitious disaster scenario known as an ARkstorm. It was inspired by the 'Great Flood of 1862,' which inundated a 300-mile length of the state.
An ARkStorm is an atmospheric river estimated to occur once every 1,000 years. It is based on weather patterns in California between 1861 and 1862, when the state experienced the "Great Flood of 1862," and was created as a weather model in 2011, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Heat and moisture from the Pacific Ocean would be drawn into the ARkStorm event, resulting in a succession of atmospheric rivers-long, narrow bands of the atmosphere over several weeks along the West Coast, creating circumstances akin to the "ferocity of hurricanes."
Studies have indicated a 30% possibility of one hitting the state in the next 30 years, despite meteorologists assuring the public that the current system is not the feared megastorm.
The moniker "The Other Big One" came after the original "Big One," which refers to an anticipated catastrophic earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. However, the ArkStorm would cause disaster over a far wider area than an earthquake would.
According to Daniel Swain, a researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles, who worked on the ARkstorm scenario, the storm sequence is larger in the future scenario in nearly every way.
There is an overall increase in precipitation, hourly rainfall that is more intense, and a stronger wind. Additionally, the most substantial localized downpours become noticeably intense. A portion of the future scenario's peaks resemble the intense downpours akin to those in Texas.
Forecasted ARkstorm Damages
Forecasts for the ARkstorm indicated that it would produce flood walls as high as twenty feet, uproot more than five million people, and inflict damages of at least $700 billion.
Since an ARkstorm would take many weeks to form, they should have more time to prepare for it. More runoff may result in destructive debris flows and landslides, especially in steep regions that have recently seen wildfires.
According to the USGS website, a major winter storm in California could potentially cause flooding in thousands of square miles of agricultural and urban area, thousands of landslides, disruption of lifelines for days or weeks throughout the state, and costs of about $725 billion.
The amount includes roughly $400 billion in losses due to property destruction and $325 billion in losses resulting from company interruption. In addition, over 25% of the state's buildings would be drowned under the scenario.
"Unlike for earthquakes, we can partially predict key aspects of the geophysical phenomena that would create damages in the days before an ARkStorm strikes," per USGS.
"Enhancing the accuracy, lead time, and the particular measures that these systems can estimate is a great challenge scientifically and practically."
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Check out more news and information on the Great Flood in Science Times.
