Amazon Rainforest Could Reach Tipping Point, Collapse by 2050 [Study]

The Amazon Rainforest, the largest rainforest in the world, is at risk of collapse. Researchers warn that it is approaching its tipping point and could happen in three decades.

Amazon Rainforest at Risk of Collapse

A new study learned that nearly half of the Amazon rainforest is at risk of collapse. Part of the reason is the "unprecedented stress" and a combination of climate change-related drivers like deforestation and global warming, to name a few.

After analyzing data for five causes of water stress in the area and crucial thresholds that run the risk of initiating the system's collapse, the researcher concluded that 10 percent of the Amazon was highly susceptible to becoming degraded ecosystems with less tree cover or grasslands. Additionally, another 47% of the forest, largely unexplored regions more susceptible to severe droughts like the current one, are at risk of collapsing by 2050.

They found that even in central and distant areas of the system, the region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to major droughts, fires, higher temperatures, and deforestation. They said that going beyond possible critical thresholds, also known as tipping points, might result in "local, regional, or even biome-wide forest collapse" and have a cascading influence on local climate change.

"Once we cross this tipping point, we will lose control of how the system will behave," said ecologist Bernardo Flores of the University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, lead author of the report. "The forest will die by itself."

This peer-reviewed work is the first significant study to examine the combined consequences of several threats. However, previous research has evaluated the separate effects of deforestation and climate change on the rainforest.

"This study adds it all up to show how this tipping point is closer than other studies estimated," added Carlos Nobre, an author of the study. Dr. Nobre is a Brazilian earth systems scientist who studies how deforestation and climate change might permanently change forests.

The study overlaid data on temperature, rainfall patterns, and forest cover to determine where the rainforest is most likely to transform. It then considered additional characteristics, such as roads or legal protections, that would make certain portions of the forest more or less unstable. Due to these changes, the forest may reach a tipping point, at which point the entire forest ecosystem may collapse.

The researchers noted that they couldn't tell for sure when the collapse would happen, but "we are approaching it faster than we thought."

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What is the Amazon Rainforest?

The Amazon Rainforest is a vast tropical rainforest that spans 2,300,000 square miles (6,000,000 square kilometers) and is located in the drainage basin of the Amazon River and its tributaries in northern South America. It makes up almost 40% of Brazil's total area and is bordered to the north by the Guiana Highlands, to the west by the Andes Mountains, to the south by the Brazilian central plateau, and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean.

Almost one-third of the planet's remaining tropical rainforests are found in the Amazon region of South America. Ten percent of known wildlife species live in the Amazon rainforest, making up only 1% of the planet's area. There are likely many more species that we are still unaware of.

The Amazon is extremely important because people rely on the jungle both locally and globally. In addition to providing medicine, food, water, and timber, the Amazon rainforest stores 150-200 billion tons of carbon dioxide, which is used to help stabilize the climate. In addition, the Amazon's trees contribute significantly to regional and global water and carbon cycles by releasing 20 billion tonnes of water into the sky every day.