Eclipse Chasing: Which Places in the Path of Totality Will Have the Best Weather on April 8?

Which location will enjoy optimal weather for the April 8 total solar eclipse? This inquiry is paramount across North America due to seasonal transitions. The straightforward answer lies within the path of totality, where clear skies promise an unobstructed view of totality's celestial spectacle. Eclipse enthusiasts prioritize avoiding clouds to fully appreciate the astronomical event.

Satellite Data, Cloud Climatology, and Sunshine Prospects across North America

Accurate weather forecasts are limited to about a week in advance, but data from satellite observations since 1979 provide insights into climate patterns indicating optimal sunshine prospects.

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, through its climate research, has produced fresh cloud climatology image data. This dataset, now expanded to include Atlantic Canada, utilizes information from the GOES weather satellites.

It is based solely on GOES observations taken on April 8 each year from 1995 to 2023, aggregated and analyzed for cloud cover probabilities across North America.

The eclipse's path traverses various climates, from dry subtropical deserts to snowy spring landscapes. For those seeking the eclipse, heading south offers the best chances due to more advanced summer weather in places like Mexico and Texas.

During this time of year, the southwestern sections of the path of totality, including Mexico and Texas, enjoy warmer temperatures and a greater likelihood of clear skies compared to the colder April weather in the northeastern regions.

However, clear weather on the day of the eclipse is not guaranteed anywhere along the path of totality. According to Jay Anderson, a Canadian meteorologist specializing in eclipse track climates, there's still a 1-in-3 chance of encountering some cloud cover, even in the most favorable regions.

Nonetheless, amidst the cloudy outlook, there are patches of optimism in northern states and Canada, offering some hope for clear skies on eclipse day.

Chasing the Solar Eclipse

Eclipse chasing combines astronomy with cloud dodging, with April 8 observers in the path of totality hoping for clear skies. Here are some of the places with less chance of obstruction from clouds:

Mexico

April, the driest month for much of Mexico along the eclipse path, sees monthly cloudiness drop to low percentages in places like Mazatlán, Durango, and Torreón. However, beyond Torreón, cloud cover increases due to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Sierra Madre Oriental peaks, causing clouds to condense at higher elevations.

The subtropical jet stream, often positioned over the eclipse path, contributes to cloudiness, with low-pressure systems along the California coast intensifying cloud cover and potentially causing thunderstorms, particularly along the western Sierra Madres.

USA

As the eclipse enters Texas, it descends to low elevations along the Rio Grande Valley and the Gulf Coastal Plain, where moisture from the Gulf spreads until it meets the Edwards Plateau. The Texas Hill Country, featuring rugged terrain, marks the beginning of the eclipse path, with cloud cover increasing toward the south, particularly near Junction, Texas.

Moving through Waco, Texas, cloud cover rises gradually, reaching 60% by Carbondale, Illinois. Eclipse seekers in areas such as Arkansas and Missouri should consider relocating to the Ozark Plateau near West Plains for clearer viewing.

Cloud cover increases further through Illinois and Indiana, reaching 75% by Ohio due to springtime low-pressure systems. Along the south shore of Lakes Erie and Ontario, fewer clouds are observed, favoring viewing sites like Cleveland and Buffalo.

Canada

Beyond Lake Ontario, the eclipse path ascends into the northern Appalachian Mountains, leading to increased cloud cover. In Maine and New Brunswick, the highest monthly cloud levels occur, peaking at 85% around Maine's Allagash Wilderness Waterway.

Cloud amounts are lower over the southern side of the central line, favoring locations near Millinocket in Maine and Oromocto in New Brunswick. As the shadow path reaches the Gulf of St. Lawrence at Richibucto, New Brunswick, cloud cover drops abruptly, offering optimal eclipse viewing prospects at Tignish on Prince Edward Island's northern tip.