Hurricanes are some of the most destructive natural hazards in the world.
Destructive Hurricanes
Different environmental conditions dictate their ability to cause damage. These include conditions such as guiding winds, warm ocean waters, and atmospheric moisture. Such factors can work together to dictate the strength of a storm.
As part of a new study, scientists were able to discover that the conditions of the coasts have changed since the year 1979. This
has prompted global nearshore hurricanes to quickly intensify. Moreover, new projections also suggest that such a rate will keep on climbing if current warming trends persist. These were all noted in the "A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification" study.
Further work is necessary in order to document how these natural hazards change amidst this warming world. Earlier research has revealed that these hurricanes could become wetter and end up threatening higher flooding risks. There are also other studies that suggest that these hurricanes could become more frequent across some areas and that their intensity could end up peaking closer to the coast. This would end up posing more risk to around 40% of the world's population that lives within 100 kilometers from a coastline.
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Intensifying Hurricanes
However, until now, nobody was able to document whether these coastal hurricanes are faster in intensification at a global scale. As the researchers examined past daya, they discovered that the average rate of intensification from 1979 to 2000 was equivalent to 0.37 knots every six hours. This rate went up for a while from 2000 to 2020, when the mean rate of intensification was 1.15 knots every six hours.
In the 20 years prior to 2000, on average, a hurricane could have started with a particular intensity and went up in strength by roughly 1.5 knots over a day's course. After 2000, a typical hurricane could start at the same intensity and become stronger by roughly 4.5 knots across the same period.
The study also found that the global trend could go higher amidst persisting climate change. Several research on hurricanes focus on historical data, which involves examining past records for investigating hurricane intensification potential trends.
As part of the new work, climate modeling reveals how these hazards could shape up in the decades to come. Across almost all coastlines of the continental landmasses in the world, these hurricanes could end up intensifying faster alongside global warming.
Karthik Balaguru, a climate scientist and the study's lead author, explains that they are not referring to intensification out in the ocean's middle. Rather, what they refer to is intensification that happens at the coastline, which is where this is most important.
Though such changes are unique to coastal settings, islands may also face similar risks. This is due to how the same intensification rises could develop close to Madagascar and the Philippines.
Behind Rising Intensification Rates
The study attributes the rising intensification rates to higher humidity and weaker wind shear. The latter may apparently play an important role in the future.
Wind shears refer to wind speed and direction changes across different altitudes in the atmosphere of the Earth. Vertical wind shear, specifically, may greatly influence the strength of a hurricane. If it is strong enough, wind shear could end up robbing moisture from the core of a storm and sap its power. Moreover, if it is too weak, this becomes one less check on hurricanes that are intensifying.
The team of Balaguru discovered that wind shear could end up getting weaker across the majority of the planet, especially in coastal regions in the Northern Hemisphere, in a climate that is warmer.
Ruby Leung, an Earth scientist and co-author of the study, says that the study carries grave implications for individuals who live by the coast. It also offers great implications to decision-makers and operational forecasters. The rising rates of intensification observed could mean that landfalling hurricanes may become stronger and more destructive. It is crucial to know how the risks that these storms pose could alter with climate change.
The researchers also note that the rise of intensification rates are not equal all over the world.
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