NASA has just landed its new Mars Perseverance rover to scan for evidence of ancient microbial existence and further pave the way for human discovery. Since Sojourner, it is NASA's fifth explorer, the first device to trundle over another world's surface in 1997.
But although the trip is almost technologically within control, analysts agree that because of financing uncertainties, a human-crewed expedition is possibly still decades away. In the long-held objective of a crewed expedition, could Elon Musk's SpaceX, who is planning a first human flight in 2026, defeat NASA?
SpaceX Wildcard
The next-generation Starship rocket was designed for Elon Musk's purpose, while two iterations exploded on their current test runs dramatically.
G. Scott Hubbard, NASA's first director of the Mars program, now at Stanford, told AFP per France24 that SpaceX will take chances and send useful data to the probability.
This might ultimately give SpaceX an advantage over NASA's preferred rocket, the problematic Space Launch System (SLS) plagued with setbacks and cost overruns.
But not even one of the world's wealthiest citizens will afford Mars the whole bill on their own.
Hubbard sees a public-private collaboration as more possible, with SpaceX's idea and NASA solving other issues.
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Risk Tolerance
The viability boils down to how much danger we are prepared to accept, Hubbard said.
Hubbard said the demand during the Shuttle period was that astronauts experience little more than a three percent elevated chance of loss.
They have now argued that, depending on the project, deep space flights are anywhere between 10 and 30 percent, so Hubbard said NASA is adopting a more defensive or flexible stance.
Laura Forczyk, the founder of the Astralytical space consultancy company and a planetary scientist, told AFP per Phys.org it might entail increasing the allowable limit at which cumulative radiation astronauts will be subjected over their lifetimes, which NASA is also contemplating.
How Is It Possible?
Scientists have learned numerous things from the flights of explorers to the Moon and space stations.
Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics astronomer, told AFP per Deccan Herald there are general ideas on carrying out a Mars mission. The specifics are incomplete, however.
Forczyk states that one way to minimize radiation sensitivity on the journey is to get there earlier.
This could include nuclear thermal propulsion that creates much more thrust than standard chemical rockets generate electricity.
Another could be designing a spaceship that collects space radiation with water tanks strapped to it, McDowell said.
Once there, in the 95-percent carbon dioxide environment, we would need to find places to breathe. As a scientific demonstration, Perseverance has an instrument on board to turn carbon dioxide into oxygen.
Some options include melting down the ice into oxygen and hydrogen at the planet's poles, which would also power rockets.
Radiation would still be daunting on the planet due to the ultra-thin atmosphere and absence of a safe magnetosphere. Hence, shelters will need to be well protected or even placed underground.
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