NASA's OSIRIS-REx Says Asteroid Bennu Has 1-in-1750 Chance to Make Near-Earth Approach in Next 300 Years

Bennu is one of our solar system's most dangerous known asteroids. Scientists currently have a far better knowledge of the near-Earth asteroid, its impending closest encounters to Earth, and if it might strike our planet. Thanks to a NASA's OSIRIS-REx!

While orbiting Bennu for more than two years, NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission collected unparalleled data as well as a specimen that is currently on its way back to Earth. The sample will be sent by September 2023.

OSIRIS-REx acquired data that enabled precise tracking of the asteroid's motions until 2300, reducing scientists' concerns about the asteroid's future orbit. Through the year 2300, the object has a 1 in 1,750 probability of colliding with Earth.

The asteroid will make its near-Earth approach in 2135, National Geographic said. While Bennu will not approach close enough to threaten Earth at that time, astronomers will be able to better understand how our planet's gravity will affect the asteroid's future orbit around the sun by knowing its exact route. This may influence the probability of Bennu colliding with Earth after 2135.

Bennu will reach its closest approach to Earth on September 24, 2182, with a 1 in 2700 probability of colliding with the planet. The chance of Bennu colliding with Earth is minimal, according to experts, and NASA will continue to track the asteroid's trajectory in years to come.

A research-based analysis titled "Ephemeris and Hazard Assessment for Near-Earth Asteroid (101955) Bennu Based on OSIRIS-REx Data" was published in the journal Icarus on Wednesday.

Program manager for the Near-Earth Object Observations Program at NASA headquarters in Washington, Kelly Fast, said in a statement on the space agency's website that NASA's Planetary Defense's goal is to identify and monitor asteroids and comets that might travel close to Earth and threaten our planet.

Fast said that the researchers collected data from ongoing astronomical surveys to identify newly unknown objects and develop orbital models for them. As a result, she claims that the OSIRIS-REx mission has offered a unique chance to improve and test these models, allowing scientists to better estimate where Bennu will be when it reaches Earth in more than a century.

Examining a Nearby Asteroid

The OSIRIS-REx mission landed in Bennu in December 2018, Science Mag said. NASA said that it left on May 10 this year, carrying the sample gathered from the asteroid's surface. Even though the spacecraft is still a few years away from returning to Earth, it has sent back data throughout the entire period, detailing everything it has discovered about Bennu. This revealed that it is a rubble-pile asteroid in the shape of a spinning top, made up of boulders held together by gravity. It stretches for roughly a third of a mile or 500 meters.

Lead study author Davide Farnocchia, a scientist at NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, per Space.com, said that the future direction of Bennu has a very high degree of certainty through 2135. However, predicting Bennu's path after 2135 is still challenging.

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies in Pasadena, California, can use the asteroid data to compute trajectories, estimate future motion, and determine whether or not an impact is likely.

Farnocchia stressed per the Vice report that the effect likelihood is extremely low. He claimed that there is a 99.4 percent chance that there will be no impact trajectory. So there is nothing to worry about.

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