In 2017, geology experts developed a volcanic forecasting model through supercomputers called iForge and Clue Waters. During the time, a separate team monitored the activities exhibited by Galapagos Island's Sierra Negra volcano in Ecuador. A successful prediction was formulated through their collaboration, allowing the scientists to record an upcoming June 2018 eruption five months before the event.
The modeling approach was able to predict other volcanic eruptions ahead of time. The program was originally constructed through an iMac computer. Among its known predictions was the eruption of the Okmok volcano in Alaska back in 2008.
In new research, the supercomputer developers, led by scholars from the National Center for Supercomputing Applications and the University of Illinois, processed an upgrade for the successful devices to get ahold of more accurate and detailed information about volcanic explosions in the future.
Predicting the 2018 Sierra Negra Eruption
Former Illinois graduate student Yan Zhan left, professor Patricia Gregg and research professor Seid Koric led a team that produced the fortuitous forecast of the 2018 Sierra Negra volcanic eruption five months before it occurred.
The supercomputers are bound to predict another eruption from the Sierra Negra, as recent observations revealed risky activities from the volcano that might lead to an unexpected burst anytime in the future, EurekAlert reports.
University of Illinois Department of Geology, School of Earth, Society, and Environment specialist Patricia Gregg, who also served as lead of the previous and recent studies, explained that Sierra Negra is somewhat a 'well-behaved' volcano.
In the past, the vent did not burst violently and exhibited signs of an upcoming eruption, the expert continued. The data from these signs, which range from gas release, groundswell, and a surge in seismic activity, made the upgrade for the new supercomputer possible, she added.
On the other hand, Gregg emphasized that the established pattern given by the Sierra Negra does not always appear in other volcanoes. Previously thought impossible, the experts were able to create and upgrade a system that could predict a trickier and random eruption based on the estimates of a supercomputer.
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Future of Forecasting Eruptions by AI-Powered Supercomputers
The 2017 and 2018 studies were made possible through the supercomputer that Gregg's team constructed. The observations were intended to serve as a test to understand more about the timing and cycles of Sierra Negra's eruption, but they yielded unexpected results that truly got ahold of direct information about the volcano.
According to their findings back in 2018, the magma chamber beneath the Sierra Negra showed an anomaly that might lead to an eruption between June 25 and July 5 of the same year, but this prediction could be subject to a mechanical failure and other unknown predictions that might occur subsequently.
Gregg said that after this theory was presented in March, the team did other scientific work and did not look at the supercomputers again until Colgate University's geology specialist Dennis Geist asked the team on June 26 about the exact dates they forecasted months prior. One day after this confirmation, the Sierra Negra erupted.
Due to the results of this prediction, the team will attempt to utilize artificial intelligence in the supercomputer models to gain more data from monitored volcanoes even remotely through each of their own devices.
The study was published in Science Advances, "Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador."
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