Debris From China’s Tiangong Space Station Rocket Predicted to Fall Back to Earth on July 31, Experts Say

Experts estimate that the latest space junk from the Chinese space rocket will return to Earth by the end of the month. The object in question is the core stage of the Long March 5B rocket, which is called the Wentian module. The module has successfully docked with the already orbiting Tianhe core module. The Wentian module weighs roughly 22 tons.

Tiangong Space Station Rocket Reentry Position Towards Earth

According to researchers at the Aerospace Corporation's Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS), the rocket body will likely remain in orbit for around a week. They examined the tracking data collected by the U.S. Space Force's Space Surveillance Network.

The Aerospace Corporation tweeted that they are tracking the reentry of CZ-5B. It included the estimated date and time, which is July 31, UTC ± 24 hours.

However, the projection will be revised and refined over time. CORDS experts warned that it is too early to determine where the Chinese rocket will crash land. Yet, based on its orbit, the reentry will occur between 41 degrees north and 41 degrees south latitude. And not all of the items will burn up in the Earth's atmosphere. The stage's orbit will take it slightly north of New York, Madrid, and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand.

The Long March 5B reentry will be uncontrollable if its engines do not have the ability to restart. Due to increased collisions with molecules in the Earth's atmosphere, the spent booster will progressively lose altitude.

The Aerospace Corporation explained that the general rule of thumb is that 20-40% of the mass of a huge object will reach the ground. However, the exact number depends on the object's design. In this case, the agency anticipated it would be between 5.5 and 9.9 tons.

Most orbital-class rocket core stages are designed to land safely in the sea or over sparsely populated areas of terra firma. It can also make powered, vertical landings to permit reuse, similar to the first stages of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy design.

However, the Long March 5B core enters orbit with its payload, setting up an uncontrolled crash back to Earth in the not-too-distant future due to atmospheric drag. Such undirected dives were observed on the two previous missions of Long March 5B. There were no reported injuries in any of these instances.

Exploration Specialists Insight on China's Space Station Debris

The risk of harm and damage to ground infrastructure has prompted exploration specialists to criticize China for allowing such space debris landings to occur. Based on the timeline, the rocket debuted on May 5, 2020. A week later, a Long March 5B body crashed uncontrollably off Africa's west coast, dumping debris in the country of Ivory Coast. The second Long March 5B reentered the Indian Ocean in May 2021, 10 days after Tiangong's core module, Tianhe, was launched.

"Spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth of reentries of space objects and maximize transparency regarding those operations," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson wrote in a statement before Tianhe's Long March 5B body came down last year.

Nelson said that it is evident that China is not meeting acceptable norms in terms of space debris. It is vital that China, as well as all other spacefaring governments and commercial entities, operate responsibly and transparently in space in order to ensure the safety, stability, security, and long-term viability of outer space activities.

According to a new Nature Astronomy publication, existing policies result in a 10% likelihood of uncontrolled reentries causing one or more casualties over a decade.

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