Solar Storm Prediction: Scientists Noticed Pre-Flare Spark From Sun Before Powerful Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

Scientists may be able to predict Solar storms soon because they noticed a pattern - a mysterious pre-flare spark occurs before it.

Pre-Flare Spark Before Solar Storms Observed

Scientists dug into years of data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and noticed a pre-flare spark before each solar storm. They examined the data between the 1970s and 1980s and found anecdotal evidence that the flashes and flares were related, KD Leka, a senior research scientist at NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) in Boulder, Colorado, told Live Science.

However, the previous studies didn't have SDO, as the artificial satellite watching the Sun was only launched on Feb. 11, 2010.

However, according to Leka, based on the patterns, the images of the sun were giving the scientists and forecasters an idea of when an active region is likely to be flare-productive.

Leka and her colleagues examined nearly a decade of SDO data and zoomed in on the Sun's active sunspots. They noticed that the dark areas where the magnetic field is active have contortions. The magnetic field twists and tangles, then snap back into its original form before an enormous burst of energy erupts from the surface.

The explosion can manifest as a solar flare or coronal mass ejection (CME). However, Leka said that while the discovery is exciting, it doesn't mean that they can now predict solar flares.

However, she said it could be compared to forecasting a volcanic eruption. Scientists monitor earthquakes and tweak models to predict an eruption. However, no single earthquake serves as a volcanic eruption predictor.

Study co-author Karin Dissauer, a research scientist at NWRA, said in a statement that combining all the information should allow forecasters to make better predictions about when and where solar flares will happen.

The study was published in The Astrophysical Journal.

ALSO READ: Major Solar Flare Impact on Earth: How Does a Sun Eruption Affect Our Use of Electronics, Technology?

Why It's Important to Predict Solar Storms?

Solar storm or solar flare carries a lot of energy and threatens astronauts and Earth-orbiting spacecraft. During solar storms, astronauts have to seek shelter and halt extravehicular activities, according to Space.com.

It can also disrupt power grids and communication systems on Earth.

Solar flares come in different intensities; the most powerful are X-class flares, followed by M-, C-, and B-class. A-class flares are the smallest.

Astronomer Samue Heinrich discovered in early 1843 that solar activity follows a certain pattern. It peaks every 11 years, DW reported.

The strongest solar storm measured on Earth was the Carrington Event in 1859. It caused failures in North American and European telegraph networks. Polar lights were also observed as far as Rome and Hawaii.

Over a decade later, in March 1989, a solar storm was recorded in Quebec, Canada, where it paralyzed the entire power grid. The phenomenon left 6 million people without electricity for nine hours.

In July 2012, another solar storm as strong as the Carrington Event narrowly missed Earth. According to NASA, if it had happened a week earlier, the "Earth would have been right in the line of fire."