Elon Musk: SpaceX’s Starship Test Launch Only Has 50% Success Rate, Might Even Explode Like Its Predecessors

SpaceX is set to launch its Starship on Monday, April 17, at 0820 CT (1320 UTC). to test its mega-rocket, which is designed to transport humans to Mars in the future.

The Starship is the largest and most potent reusable rocket ever built. SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, has admitted to uncertainty regarding the success of the rocket's first orbital test launch. However, he has promised it will be an exciting event for everyone involved.

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The SpaceX Starship rocket stands on the launchpad ahead of its scheduled launch from the SpaceX Starbase in Boca Chica as seen from South Padre Island, Texas on April 17, 2023. PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images

Starship's Test Launch an 'If' Situation

SpaceX received on Friday, April 14, permission from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to launch Starship in its full configuration.

The mega-rocket was initially scheduled to launch from SpaceX headquarters in Texas at 0800 CT, but it was moved to 0820 local time (1320 UTC) on Monday, April 17. On Mar 7, Musk said at the Morgan Stanley Conference, "I'm not saying it will get to orbit, but I am guaranteeing excitement!"

The SpaceX founder noted that Monday's launch is a rather sizeable "if" and has given it only a 50% chance of success and that it might even explode like its predecessors, Science Alert reported.

Despite giving it only a 50% chance of success, he said the rock is 80% likely to reach orbit by the end of the year. Starship rocket is a mega-rocket 400 stories tall, consisting of a 164-foot (50-meter) reusable crew and cargo capsule stacked on top of the 230-foot (70-meter) tall Super Heavy rocket booster.

Just this February, Musk's company carried out a successful test firing of the Super Heavy booster's 33 Raptor engines while it was anchored down during the event.

A successful test firing of the 33 Raptor engines on the booster was carried out in February, but the Super Heavy booster was anchored down the whole time.

SpaceX Aims for Starship to Become Reusable Like Falcon 9 Rocket

The upcoming test launch for SpaceX's Starship aims to achieve Earth's orbit, with no intent to land or reuse the Starship or Super Heavy Booster. However, it ultimately serves as a hopeful step toward the ultimate goal of utilizing recycled rockets like Falcon 9 to transport humans to other planets and back.

In its earlier stages, Falcon 9 saw its fair share of failures before ultimately succeeding in lift-offs and landings, and Starship's success carries immense weight in terms of both SpaceX's future and the United States' mission for human exploration. Despite this pressure, SpaceX is accustomed to utilizing mishaps, accidents, and failures to improve their spacecraft.

The success of SpaceX's Starship is highly consequential to their and the United States' future as the aim is for it to be able to transport humans to other planets and back, CNN reported. The first test launch is the first promising step in developing and renewing rockets capable of taking humans into space.

SpaceX's readiness to embrace mistakes, accidents, and misfires as vital components in their spacecraft's design and improvement lead to a positive outlook despite the pressure and importance of the Starship launch. The potentially explosive rocket's launch may attract worldwide attention, but SpaceX is accustomed to this visibility.

Similar to Falcon Heavy's initial launch in 2018, only given a fifty percent chance of success by Elon Musk himself. Nevertheless, Falcon Heavy's eventual triumph resulted in an unprecedented rocket launch. For SpaceX's future and the United States' mission for human exploration, the significance of the upcoming Starship launch is indisputable, yet not all rides on its success.

Check out more news and information on SpaceX in Science Times.

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