Hurricane Idalia May Turn Into Monster Storm in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida

An extreme storm surge threatens the Gulf Coast of Florida as Hurricane Idalia continues to intensify on its way to the vulnerable northwestern coastline.

Monster Storm on Its Way

According to the National Hurricane Center data, Idalia strengthened from a storm category into a hurricane on August 29 as it traveled near Cuba. Track models show Idalia moving north-northwest, agitating over the eastern Gulf of Mexico before landfall on August 30 on the west coast of Florida.

The storm is also likely to produce a rush of seawater being pushed toward the coast and cause intense flooding that can devastate all. The waters are predicted to swell up to 15 feet in some areas, causing battering waves and rising seas, which can wash away buildings, marinas, docks, and piers.

This event can also discharge a river of harmful debris into the floodwaters. In addition, a storm surge this size could erode beaches and rip boats away from their moorings, causing them to get stranded ashore. Experts predict that many communities might be uninhabitable for several weeks. Older communities with structures that are not made to withstand stronger storm surges are at highest risk.

Idalia is also expected to cross an area with low wind shear, characterized by the change in speed and direction of winds at various atmospheric heights. Strong wind shear can break storms apart before they gather strength, while areas with weaker wind shear can trigger rapid intensification.

Key Ingredient to Rapid Intensification

According to the National Hurricane Center, "rapid intensification" describes an increased sustained wind speed of at least 35 mph over 24 hours. The conditions that trigger rapid intensification are usually found over the ocean, where warm waters and atmospheric moisture provide the energy needed to fuel large storms.

Climate scientist Jill Trepanier from Louisiana State University explains that the rapid intensification of Hurricane Idalia can be due to the wildly hot conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. In recent weeks, sea surface temperatures in the region have climbed to record levels. In some parts of the coastline, the waters have measured 90 degrees Fahrenheit, while most of the Gulf has reached the high 80s. These conditions are almost two degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

Experts worry that the exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico could fuel Idalia to rapidly intensify before reaching Florida. Early forecasts suggest that with the combination of warm waters, low wind shear, and high atmospheric moisture levels, a tropical storm can become a major Category 3 hurricane in just a short period.

Although climate change most likely has an impact on weather conditions, the precise effect of global warming on rapid intensification still needs more research, according to Trepanier. Regardless of whether and how a storm intensifies, people living along the path of hurricanes are still advised to take proper precautions and follow the guidelines of local officials.