UK Forests Bound for Catastrophic Ecosystem Collapse in 50 Years; Experts Identify Issues With the Greatest Impact on Woodlands

A team of scientists from across Europe has produced a list of issues likely to impact UK forests over the next five decades significantly.

Threats to British Woodlands

For the first time, a horizontal scanning exercise was conducted on UK forests to help researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and society prepare better for the future and address threats before they become critical. Dr. Eleanor Tew from Forestry England led this technique of identifying relatively unknown threats, opportunities, and new trends in the UK.

In this study, a panel of 42 experts from various organizations, professions, and geographies reached out to their networks to seek overlooked and emerging threats. The resulting 180-item list underwent a series of review exercises and was whittled down to a shortlist of 30 issues. In the final workshop, the experts identified the top 15 issues likely to have the greatest effect on UK forests in the next 50 years.

The research did not support the overall ranking of the issues in order of importance or likelihood of occurrence. But when the panel individually scored these threats, the most highly ranked issue was the catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse. In fact, 64% of experts ranked it as their top issue, while 88% ranked it within their top three.

Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse refers to multiple interrelated risks with cascading impacts on forests and can lead to total or partial collapse. This phenomenon has already occurred in continental Europe and North America.

Another identified issue is drought caused by climate change, which could lead to competition for water resources between forests and society. Climate projections show that droughts, storms, and heatwaves are likely to become more common and severe.

The list also includes tree viral diseases. In the UK, globalization and climate change cause an increase in pests and pathogens, with viruses and viroids being the largest group on the UK Plant Health Risk Register. Little is known, however, about how viral diseases can affect forest tree species and the wider ecosystem.

The experts also identified the effect of climate change on forest management, where extreme weather leads to smaller windows of time when forestry can be carried out. Researchers warn that the seasons for work like harvesting and thinning are getting narrower since winter becomes wetter and summer becomes hotter.

According to Tew, the problem comes when these things happen simultaneously as multiple, interrelated threats. The researchers hope that the results from this study will serve as an urgent call to action to build and upscale action to increase forest resilience.

How Does Horizontal Scanning Work?

Horizontal scanning is a foresight technique to discover early signs of potential environmental change. This method helps assess whether one is prepared for future changes or threats.

A range of tools can be used to analyze future risks and opportunities in a structured manner. Horizontal scanning is not about predicting the future, but it is focused on the early detection of weak signals as indicators of potential change.

Horizontal scanning can be combined with other forecasting tools. If performed consistently and effectively, it can help in policy making by identifying important needs or gaps that must be addressed.