Intensified Sunspot, Solar Flare to Happening 1-3 Years from Now Could be One of the Most Active Activities of Its Kind

As of August 5, 2022, the solar cycle is intensifying, with the cycle's expected peak still one to three years from now.

This cycle, a CNET report said, Solar Cycle 25 "was expected to be weaker than average," although some researchers are now saying it could be one of the most active since recordkeeping that began in the 1700s.

Essentially, Sunspot and solar flare activity, which can disrupt communications and electric systems on Earth, will increase until a peak that will take place between 2023 and 2025.

Early indications are that the Earth could be in for a wild space weather ride in the next couple of years. As the sun builds towards its subsequent solar maximum, its surface is growing unsettled with many sunspots, each with the potential of unleashing solar flares and coronal mass ejections or CMEs that can disrupt electrical systems and communications on Earth.

Solar Cycle 25

The sun reaches its solar maximum, or the point of the strongest sunspot activity, during part of the 11-year solar cycles that astronomers have tracked since the middle of the 1700s.

The last solar maximum from 2013 to 2014 was very muted, and scientists had predicted one more quiet peak for this cycle called Solar Cycle 25.

However, with the following maximum still one year or more away, this cycle is already going beyond expectations for activity and may even be the strongest period seen on the sun since the beginning of recordkeeping.

The activity of the sun has rapidly ramped up, and although the peak levels haven't been reached yet in this cycle, the activity of the sun already exceeds such predictions, according to the rector of NASA's Heliophysics Division, Nicole Fox, in the Solar Cycle blog of the space agency.

Sunspot and Solar Flare

The official forecast by NOAA and NASA in 2020 predicted a weaker-than-average cycle, similar to Cycle 24, NCAR & UCAR News reported. However, not all experts agreed.

Around the same period, a study headed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Scott McIntosh was published in the Solar Physics journal.

In stark discrepancy to the consensus forecast, McIntosh and colleagues foresaw that Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that's rivaling the top few since records started.

The first half of this year saw Sunspot and solar flare activity on the sun increase substantially, which includes some of the most powerful flares observed in several years.

With the predicted maximum still a few years from now, it appears that things are trending toward the prediction of McIntosh, of a more active solar cycle peak.

Upcoming Solar Maximum

Suppose this upcoming solar maximum is on the record books. In that case, it will occur at a time when the Earth's presence in orbit and its reliance on satellite communications has exponentially grown.

In early 2022, SpaceX reported losing several Starlink satellites to an extended geomagnetic storm of moderate strength.

Past solar maximums also caused some havoc on the ground with major effects on the electrical grid and still have been done to harden the systems on build and redundancies for the past 20 years.

There is one possible silver lining, at least for some researchers, and that's if this solar maximum temporarily disables the electrical and communication systems, it will also reduce epic auroral displays.

A related report about solar flares is shown on THEREALPAX's YouTube video below:

Check out more news and information on Sun in Science Times.