‘Three-peat’ La Niña Predicted; Forecasters Say This Is the Third in a Row for the Pacific Ocean To Be in This Weather Cycle

A 'three-peat La Niña' has been predicted by forecasters to occur this year which means that it will be the third winter in a row that the Pacific Ocean has been in this weather cycle, something that has taken place just twice before in records going back to 1050.

As specified in a Phys.org report, a new study is offering a probable explanation. The research suggests that climate change, in short term, favors La Niñas.

According to Robert Jnglin Wills, the study's lead author and UW research scientist in atmospheric sciences, the Pacific Ocean naturally cycles between La Niña and El Niño conditions although their work is suggesting that climate change could presently "be weighing the dice toward La Niña."

At some point, they anticipte anthropogenic or human-caused influences for the reversal of such trends and give El Niño an upper hand.

Wide-Ranging Effects of El Niño and La Niña

Scientists are hoping to forecast these longer-term El Niño-like or La Niña-like climate trends in order to shield human life and property.

Wills explained that this is an essential question in the next hundred years for areas that are greatly affected by El Niño, including North America, South America, East, and South Asia, and Australia.

The two weather cycles have wide-ranging effects, affecting rainfall patterns, flooding, and drought surrounding the Pacific Rim.

A La Niña winter is inclined to be cooler, not to mention, wetter in the Pacific Northwest and hotter and drier in the US Southwest.

Global Warming Expected To Favor El Niños

As indicated in the study published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, global warming is widely expected to favor El Ninos.

The reason is that cold, deep water that rises into the sea surface off South America will meet warmer air.

The same study also said that anyone sweating would know that evaporation has a cooling effect, and thus, the chillier ocean off South America, with less evaporation, will warm quicker than the warmer ocean off Asia.

This reduces the temperature differences throughout the tropical Pacific and lightens the surface winds that blow toward Indonesia, the same takes place during El Niño.

Climate Models Described

The result of such changes on either side of the tropical Pacific is that the difference in temperature between the eastern and western Pacific has grown.

Surface winds that blow toward Indonesia have strengthened, and people suffer from certain conditions typical of La Niña winters.

According to a related ScienceDaily report, the research is focusing on temperature patterns at the surface of the ocean. Three decades of data is quite short to investigate the frequency of El Nino and La Nina occurrences.

Describing the climate models, Wills explained, they are still becoming reasonable answers for the average warming although there is something about the regional variation, the spatial pattern of warming in the tropical oceans, "that's off."

The study investigators are not sure about the reason such a pattern is happening. Their present work is exploring the climate processes and probable links to the ocean surrounding Antarctica.

Report about the 'Three-peat La Nina' is shown on KOAA 5's YouTube video below:

Check out more news and information on Climate Change in Science Times.